Direxion Daily Etf Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DFEN Etf | USD 82.62 0.73 0.88% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 83.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.17. Direxion Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Direxion Daily's share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Direxion Daily hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Direxion Daily Aerospace from the perspective of Direxion Daily response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 83.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.17. Direxion Daily after-hype prediction price | USD 82.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Direxion Daily Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Direxion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Direxion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Direxion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Direxion Daily Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 83.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.09, mean absolute percentage error of 7.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion Daily's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Direxion Daily Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Direxion Daily | Direxion Daily Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Direxion Daily Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Direxion Daily's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Direxion Daily's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 79.23 and 87.11, respectively. We have considered Direxion Daily's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion Daily etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion Daily etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3541 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0876 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.032 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.1678 |
Predictive Modules for Direxion Daily
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Daily Aerospace. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Direxion Daily's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Direxion Daily After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Direxion Daily at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Direxion Daily or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Direxion Daily, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Direxion Daily Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Direxion Daily's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Direxion Daily's historical news coverage. Direxion Daily's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 78.68 and 86.56, respectively. We have considered Direxion Daily's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Direxion Daily is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Direxion Daily Aerospace is based on 3 months time horizon.
Direxion Daily Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Direxion Daily is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Direxion Daily backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Direxion Daily, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 3.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
82.62 | 82.62 | 0.00 |
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Direxion Daily Hype Timeline
Direxion Daily Aerospace is currently traded for 82.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Direxion is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Direxion Daily is about 197000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 82.62. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Daily to cross-verify your projections.Direxion Daily Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Direxion Daily's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Direxion Daily's future price movements. Getting to know how Direxion Daily's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Direxion Daily may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JNUG | Direxion Daily Junior | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.37 | 0.30 | 10.04 | (5.43) | 25.08 | |
| QQA | Invesco QQQ Income | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | (0.07) | 1.21 | (1.54) | 4.06 | |
| CWEB | Direxion Daily CSI | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.45 | (4.48) | 13.96 | |
| SPXS | Direxion Daily SP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | (0.03) | 3.61 | (2.92) | 9.55 | |
| WTAI | WisdomTree Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.06 | (3.52) | 7.01 | |
| EEMS | iShares MSCI Emerging | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.62 | (0.0001) | 0.97 | (0.93) | 2.40 | |
| NUMG | Nuveen ESG Mid Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.54 | (1.93) | 4.36 | |
| SIXP | AIM ETF Products | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.27 | (0.11) | 0.54 | (0.67) | 1.89 | |
| DFEB | FT Cboe Vest | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.24 | (0.14) | 0.54 | (0.47) | 1.59 | |
| NUMV | Nuveen ESG Mid Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.63 | 0.03 | 1.46 | (1.16) | 3.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Direxion Daily
For every potential investor in Direxion, whether a beginner or expert, Direxion Daily's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Direxion Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Direxion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Direxion Daily's price trends.Direxion Daily Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Direxion Daily etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Direxion Daily could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Direxion Daily by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Direxion Daily Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Direxion Daily etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Direxion Daily shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Direxion Daily etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Direxion Daily Aerospace entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13534.06 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.24) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 82.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 82.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.64) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.73) |
Direxion Daily Risk Indicators
The analysis of Direxion Daily's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Direxion Daily's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting direxion etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Variance | 15.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Direxion Daily
The number of cover stories for Direxion Daily depends on current market conditions and Direxion Daily's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Direxion Daily is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Direxion Daily's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Daily to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
The market value of Direxion Daily Aerospace is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Daily's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Daily's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Daily's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Daily's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Daily's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Daily is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Daily's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.