Chardan NexTech Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DFLIW Stock  USD 0.07  0.01  12.54%   
Chardan Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Chardan NexTech's share price is approaching 31 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Chardan NexTech, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 31

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Chardan NexTech's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Chardan NexTech and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Chardan NexTech's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Chardan NexTech Acquisition, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Chardan NexTech's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.255
Using Chardan NexTech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chardan NexTech Acquisition from the perspective of Chardan NexTech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Chardan NexTech Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 0.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.14.

Chardan NexTech after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.0926  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chardan NexTech to cross-verify your projections.

Chardan NexTech Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Chardan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chardan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chardan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Chardan NexTech's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
4.4 M
Current Value
4.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
5.6 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Chardan NexTech is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Chardan NexTech Acquisition value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Chardan NexTech Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Chardan NexTech Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 0.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chardan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chardan NexTech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Chardan NexTech Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Chardan NexTech  Chardan NexTech Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Chardan NexTech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Chardan NexTech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chardan NexTech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0007 and 19.38, respectively. We have considered Chardan NexTech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.07
0.0007
Downside
0.07
Expected Value
19.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chardan NexTech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chardan NexTech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.7658
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1335
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.6068
SAESum of the absolute errors8.1412
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Chardan NexTech Acquisition. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Chardan NexTech. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Chardan NexTech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chardan NexTech Acqu. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.0919.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.0719.37
Details

Chardan NexTech After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Chardan NexTech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chardan NexTech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chardan NexTech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Chardan NexTech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Chardan NexTech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chardan NexTech's historical news coverage. Chardan NexTech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 19.39, respectively. We have considered Chardan NexTech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.07
0.09
After-hype Price
19.39
Upside
Chardan NexTech is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chardan NexTech Acqu is based on 3 months time horizon.

Chardan NexTech Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chardan NexTech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chardan NexTech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chardan NexTech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.94 
19.30
  0.16 
  0.03 
1 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.07
0.09
34.01 
24,125  
Notes

Chardan NexTech Hype Timeline

Chardan NexTech Acqu is currently traded for 0.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Chardan is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.0926 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 34.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.94%. The volatility of related hype on Chardan NexTech is about 107222.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.04. Chardan NexTech Acquisition has accumulated 55.27 M in total debt. Note, when we think about Chardan NexTech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chardan NexTech to cross-verify your projections.

Chardan NexTech Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Chardan NexTech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chardan NexTech's future price movements. Getting to know how Chardan NexTech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chardan NexTech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NEOVNeoVolta Common Stock 0.03 6 per month 5.09  0.09  11.55 (7.96) 36.65 
SKYXSKYX Platforms Corp(0.04)9 per month 4.36  0.15  11.71 (7.17) 31.27 
ESOAEnergy Services(0.08)12 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.54 (4.37) 14.07 
SRFMSurf Air Mobility(0.11)10 per month 0.00 (0.14) 10.58 (7.94) 33.47 
PALProficient Auto Logistics(0.22)8 per month 2.93  0.12  6.89 (5.17) 38.71 
SHIPSeanergy Maritime Holdings(0.14)12 per month 1.42  0.13  3.95 (2.71) 8.64 
FORRForrester Research(0.01)10 per month 0.00 (0.07) 3.17 (4.40) 16.00 
TBITrueBlue(0.14)10 per month 0.00 (0.04) 5.89 (4.52) 24.96 
VWAVVisionWave Holdings Common 0.61 11 per month 7.02 (0.01) 13.62 (10.85) 37.69 
MVSTMicrovast Holdings(0.08)8 per month 0.00 (0.23) 6.02 (8.87) 18.37 

Other Forecasting Options for Chardan NexTech

For every potential investor in Chardan, whether a beginner or expert, Chardan NexTech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chardan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chardan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chardan NexTech's price trends.

Chardan NexTech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chardan NexTech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chardan NexTech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chardan NexTech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Chardan NexTech Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chardan NexTech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chardan NexTech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chardan NexTech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chardan NexTech Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Chardan NexTech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Chardan NexTech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chardan NexTech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chardan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Chardan NexTech

The number of cover stories for Chardan NexTech depends on current market conditions and Chardan NexTech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chardan NexTech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chardan NexTech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Chardan NexTech Short Properties

Chardan NexTech's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chardan NexTech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Chardan NexTech Acquisition often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chardan NexTech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chardan NexTech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding686.7 K
Cash And Short Term Investments4.8 M

Additional Tools for Chardan Stock Analysis

When running Chardan NexTech's price analysis, check to measure Chardan NexTech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chardan NexTech is operating at the current time. Most of Chardan NexTech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chardan NexTech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chardan NexTech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chardan NexTech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.