Defentect Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

DFTC Stock  USD 0.02  0  11.11%   
Defentect Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Defentect stock prices and determine the direction of Defentect Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Defentect's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Defentect's share price is at 54 suggesting that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Defentect, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Defentect's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Defentect Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Defentect hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Defentect Group from the perspective of Defentect response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Defentect Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0007 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.05.

Defentect after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.02  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Defentect to cross-verify your projections.

Defentect Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Defentect price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Defentect using various technical indicators. When you analyze Defentect charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Defentect is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Defentect Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Defentect Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Defentect Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0007, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000167, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Defentect Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Defentect's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Defentect Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Defentect  Defentect Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Defentect Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Defentect's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Defentect's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0002 and 16.40, respectively. We have considered Defentect's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.02
0.0002
Downside
0.02
Expected Value
16.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Defentect pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Defentect pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria106.6429
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation7.0E-4
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0542
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0455
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Defentect Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Defentect. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Defentect

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Defentect Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Defentect's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.0216.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.0216.27
Details

Defentect After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Defentect at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Defentect or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Defentect, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Defentect Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Defentect's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Defentect's historical news coverage. Defentect's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 16.27, respectively. We have considered Defentect's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.02
0.02
After-hype Price
16.27
Upside
Defentect is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Defentect Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Defentect Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Defentect is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Defentect backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Defentect, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.22 
16.38
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.02
0.02
25.00 
0.00  
Notes

Defentect Hype Timeline

Defentect Group is currently traded for 0.02. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Defentect is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is estimated to be 25.0%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.22%. The volatility of related hype on Defentect is about 2408823.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.02. Defentect Group currently holds 988.16 K in liabilities. Defentect Group has a current ratio of 0.12, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Defentect until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Defentect's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Defentect Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Defentect to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Defentect's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Defentect to cross-verify your projections.

Defentect Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Defentect's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Defentect's future price movements. Getting to know how Defentect's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Defentect may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Defentect

For every potential investor in Defentect, whether a beginner or expert, Defentect's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Defentect Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Defentect. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Defentect's price trends.

Defentect Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Defentect pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Defentect could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Defentect by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Defentect Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Defentect pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Defentect shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Defentect pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Defentect Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Defentect Risk Indicators

The analysis of Defentect's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Defentect's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting defentect pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Defentect

The number of cover stories for Defentect depends on current market conditions and Defentect's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Defentect is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Defentect's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Defentect Pink Sheet

Defentect financial ratios help investors to determine whether Defentect Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Defentect with respect to the benefits of owning Defentect security.