Definium Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| DFTX Stock | 16.25 0.78 4.58% |
Definium Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Definium Therapeutics' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Definium Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Definium Therapeutics from the perspective of Definium Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Definium Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 16.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.00. Definium Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 16.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Definium Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Definium Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Definium price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Definium using various technical indicators. When you analyze Definium charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Definium Therapeutics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Definium Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 16.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Definium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Definium Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Definium Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Definium Therapeutics | Definium Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Definium Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Definium Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Definium Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.33 and 20.04, respectively. We have considered Definium Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Definium Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Definium Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1009 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4916 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0354 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.0025 |
Predictive Modules for Definium Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Definium Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Definium Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Definium Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Definium Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Definium Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Definium Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Definium Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Definium Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Definium Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Definium Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.61 and 20.33, respectively. We have considered Definium Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Definium Therapeutics is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Definium Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Definium Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Definium Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Definium Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Definium Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 3.86 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 4 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.25 | 16.47 | 1.35 |
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Definium Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Definium Therapeutics is currently traded for 16.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.25. Definium is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 16.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.35%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.6%. The volatility of related hype on Definium Therapeutics is about 921.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.00. Net Loss for the year was (108.68 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Definium Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Definium Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Definium Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Definium Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Definium Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Definium Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SEIC | SEI Investments | (4.56) | 5 per month | 1.39 | (0) | 2.15 | (1.78) | 9.89 | |
| PKIN | Pekin Life Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (6.01) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 | |
| NP | Neptune Insurance Holdings | 0.41 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.29 | (4.70) | 16.52 | |
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Hldgs | 0.44 | 8 per month | 2.79 | 0.05 | 4.24 | (4.89) | 19.93 | |
| NXDT-PA | NexPoint Diversified Real | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | (0.08) | 1.59 | (1.75) | 6.44 | |
| TME | Tencent Music Entertainment | 0.37 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.66 | (4.93) | 10.29 | |
| ZURVY | Zurich Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.03 | 1.65 | (1.86) | 5.14 | |
| AII | American Integrity Insurance | (0.01) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.15 | (4.06) | 13.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Definium Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Definium, whether a beginner or expert, Definium Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Definium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Definium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Definium Therapeutics' price trends.Definium Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Definium Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Definium Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Definium Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Definium Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Definium Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Definium Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Definium Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Definium Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Definium Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Definium Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Definium Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting definium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.16 | |||
| Variance | 17.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Definium Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Definium Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Definium Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Definium Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Definium Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Definium Therapeutics Short Properties
Definium Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Definium Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Definium Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Definium Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Definium Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 704.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 273.7 M |
Additional Tools for Definium Stock Analysis
When running Definium Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Definium Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Definium Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Definium Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Definium Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Definium Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Definium Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.