Walt Disney Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DISN Stock  ARS 10,750  50.00  0.46%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Walt Disney on the next trading day is expected to be 10,750 with a mean absolute deviation of 119.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,140. Walt Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Walt Disney stock prices and determine the direction of Walt Disney's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Walt Disney's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Walt Disney simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Walt Disney are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Walt Disney prices get older.

Walt Disney Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Walt Disney on the next trading day is expected to be 10,750 with a mean absolute deviation of 119.00, mean absolute percentage error of 26,463, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,140.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Walt Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Walt Disney's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Walt Disney Stock Forecast Pattern

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Walt Disney Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Walt Disney's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Walt Disney's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10,748 and 10,752, respectively. We have considered Walt Disney's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10,750
10,748
Downside
10,750
Expected Value
10,752
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Walt Disney stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Walt Disney stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria126.4561
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -18.6667
MADMean absolute deviation119.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0122
SAESum of the absolute errors7140.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Walt Disney forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Walt Disney observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Walt Disney

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Walt Disney. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10,74810,75010,752
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10,36010,36111,825
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Walt Disney

For every potential investor in Walt, whether a beginner or expert, Walt Disney's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Walt Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Walt. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Walt Disney's price trends.

Walt Disney Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Walt Disney stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Walt Disney could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Walt Disney by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Walt Disney Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Walt Disney's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Walt Disney's current price.

Walt Disney Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Walt Disney stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Walt Disney shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Walt Disney stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Walt Disney entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Walt Disney Risk Indicators

The analysis of Walt Disney's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Walt Disney's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting walt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Walt Stock

When determining whether Walt Disney is a strong investment it is important to analyze Walt Disney's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Walt Disney's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Walt Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Walt Disney to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Walt Stock refer to our How to Trade Walt Stock guide.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Walt Disney's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Walt Disney is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Walt Disney's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.