AMCON Distributing Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

DIT Stock  USD 89.36  0.36  0.40%   
Polynomial Regression is applied to AMCON Distributing's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The Polynomial Regression model projects AMCON Distributing at 85.10 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This Polynomial Regression output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Polynomial regression for AMCON Distributing fits a curved line through historical price points using time as the independent variable. Unlike simple regression, which fits only a straight line, polynomial regression can capture nonlinear price trends including acceleration and deceleration.

Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts AMCON Distributing at 85.10 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.87 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 115.76 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of AMCON Distributing's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AMCON Distributing  AMCON Distributing Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This forecast for AMCON Distributing frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The projected band runs from roughly 82.89 on the downside to about 87.30 on the upside. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
89.36
85.10
Expected Value
87.30

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for AMCON Distributing stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.589
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.8671
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0223
SAESum of the absolute errors115.7592
The model takes the form: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm. Higher-degree polynomials fit AMCON Distributing historical data more closely but are more prone to overfitting, which can produce unreliable extrapolations beyond the observed price range.

Other Forecasting Options for AMCON Distributing

The distribution of AMCON Distributing's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in AMCON Distributing's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of AMCON Distributing's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in AMCON.

AMCON Distributing Related Equities

These related stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space give benchmarks for judging AMCON Distributing's results, margins, and growth trend. Growth rate gaps between AMCON Distributing and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AMCON Distributing Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for AMCON Distributing stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in AMCON Distributing. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating AMCON Distributing sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in AMCON Distributing.

AMCON Distributing Risk Indicators

Assessing AMCON Distributing's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for amcon stock. The level of risk embedded in AMCON Distributing's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing AMCON Distributing's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

AMCON Distributing Short Properties

Short-interest data for AMCON Distributing reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. When applied, these measures clarify when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding616,486
Cash And Short Term Investments744,613

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