AMCON Distributing Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| DIT Stock | USD 112.00 4.81 4.49% |
AMCON Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of AMCON Distributing's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AMCON Distributing, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
Using AMCON Distributing hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AMCON Distributing from the perspective of AMCON Distributing response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of AMCON Distributing on the next trading day is expected to be 110.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.65. AMCON Distributing after-hype prediction price | USD 110.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMCON Distributing to cross-verify your projections. AMCON Distributing Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AMCON price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AMCON using various technical indicators. When you analyze AMCON charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AMCON Distributing Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of AMCON Distributing on the next trading day is expected to be 110.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57, mean absolute percentage error of 4.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMCON Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMCON Distributing's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AMCON Distributing Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMCON Distributing | AMCON Distributing Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AMCON Distributing Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AMCON Distributing's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AMCON Distributing's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 108.21 and 112.40, respectively. We have considered AMCON Distributing's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMCON Distributing stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMCON Distributing stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.341 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5749 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 97.6461 |
Predictive Modules for AMCON Distributing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMCON Distributing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AMCON Distributing After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AMCON Distributing at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AMCON Distributing or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AMCON Distributing, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AMCON Distributing Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AMCON Distributing's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AMCON Distributing's historical news coverage. AMCON Distributing's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 108.85 and 113.05, respectively. We have considered AMCON Distributing's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AMCON Distributing is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AMCON Distributing is based on 3 months time horizon.
AMCON Distributing Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AMCON Distributing is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AMCON Distributing backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AMCON Distributing, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.10 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
112.00 | 110.95 | 0.94 |
|
AMCON Distributing Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January AMCON Distributing is traded for 112.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. AMCON is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 110.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 2.0%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.94%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. The volatility of related hype on AMCON Distributing is about 10500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 112.00. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.61. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AMCON Distributing last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2025. The entity had 1:6 split on the 17th of May 2004. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMCON Distributing to cross-verify your projections.AMCON Distributing Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AMCON Distributing's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AMCON Distributing's future price movements. Getting to know how AMCON Distributing's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AMCON Distributing may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LFS | LEIFRAS Co Ltd | 0.06 | 3 per month | 10.83 | 0.09 | 25.93 | (22.92) | 617.95 | |
| BRID | Bridgford Foods | 0.24 | 9 per month | 2.59 | (0.02) | 5.12 | (4.00) | 12.93 | |
| BRLS | Borealis Foods | 0.06 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 7.67 | (12.50) | 40.56 | |
| GNS | Genius Group | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.11 | (7.50) | 24.04 | |
| DTCK | Davis Commodities Limited | (0.04) | 9 per month | 17.30 | 0.02 | 35.65 | (22.00) | 144.78 | |
| STG | Sunlands Technology Group | (0.18) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.03 | (7.69) | 34.54 | |
| ATPC | Agape ATP | (0.03) | 6 per month | 16.33 | 0.02 | 13.95 | (20.91) | 189.71 | |
| DDC | DDC Enterprise Limited | 0.06 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.01 | (17.73) | 43.17 | |
| HFFG | Hf Foods Group | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.65 | (4.89) | 16.37 | |
| LFVN | Lifevantage | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.62 | (7.58) | 18.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for AMCON Distributing
For every potential investor in AMCON, whether a beginner or expert, AMCON Distributing's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AMCON Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AMCON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AMCON Distributing's price trends.AMCON Distributing Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AMCON Distributing stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AMCON Distributing could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AMCON Distributing by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMCON Distributing Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AMCON Distributing stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AMCON Distributing shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AMCON Distributing stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AMCON Distributing entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AMCON Distributing Risk Indicators
The analysis of AMCON Distributing's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AMCON Distributing's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amcon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AMCON Distributing
The number of cover stories for AMCON Distributing depends on current market conditions and AMCON Distributing's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AMCON Distributing is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AMCON Distributing's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
AMCON Distributing Short Properties
AMCON Distributing's future price predictability will typically decrease when AMCON Distributing's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AMCON Distributing often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AMCON Distributing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMCON Distributing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 616.5 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 744.6 K |
Additional Tools for AMCON Stock Analysis
When running AMCON Distributing's price analysis, check to measure AMCON Distributing's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AMCON Distributing is operating at the current time. Most of AMCON Distributing's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AMCON Distributing's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AMCON Distributing's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AMCON Distributing to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.