Deutsche Lufthansa OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DLAKY Stock | USD 10.32 0.17 1.62% |
Deutsche OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Deutsche Lufthansa's share price is at 57 suggesting that the otc stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Deutsche Lufthansa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Deutsche Lufthansa based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Deutsche Lufthansa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Deutsche Lufthansa AG from the perspective of Deutsche Lufthansa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deutsche Lufthansa AG on the next trading day is expected to be 10.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.59. Deutsche Lufthansa after-hype prediction price | USD 10.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Deutsche |
Deutsche Lufthansa Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Deutsche price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Deutsche using various technical indicators. When you analyze Deutsche charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Deutsche Lufthansa Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deutsche Lufthansa AG on the next trading day is expected to be 10.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deutsche OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deutsche Lufthansa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Deutsche Lufthansa OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Deutsche Lufthansa | Deutsche Lufthansa Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Deutsche Lufthansa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Deutsche Lufthansa's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Deutsche Lufthansa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.38 and 12.75, respectively. We have considered Deutsche Lufthansa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deutsche Lufthansa otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deutsche Lufthansa otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0398 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.187 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0194 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.594 |
Predictive Modules for Deutsche Lufthansa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deutsche Lufthansa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Deutsche Lufthansa After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Deutsche Lufthansa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Deutsche Lufthansa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Deutsche Lufthansa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Deutsche Lufthansa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Deutsche Lufthansa's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Deutsche Lufthansa's historical news coverage. Deutsche Lufthansa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.13 and 12.51, respectively. We have considered Deutsche Lufthansa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Deutsche Lufthansa is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Deutsche Lufthansa is based on 3 months time horizon.
Deutsche Lufthansa OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Deutsche Lufthansa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Deutsche Lufthansa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Deutsche Lufthansa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.32 | 10.32 | 0.00 |
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Deutsche Lufthansa Hype Timeline
Deutsche Lufthansa is currently traded for 10.32. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Deutsche is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on Deutsche Lufthansa is about 18250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.32. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.07. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Deutsche Lufthansa recorded a loss per share of 2.05. The entity last dividend was issued on the 18th of October 2021. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deutsche Lufthansa to cross-verify your projections.Deutsche Lufthansa Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Deutsche Lufthansa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Deutsche Lufthansa's future price movements. Getting to know how Deutsche Lufthansa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Deutsche Lufthansa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CPCAY | Cathay Pacific Airways | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.47 | 0.04 | 3.57 | (2.65) | 9.81 | |
| QABSY | Qantas Airways Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | 0.01 | 2.63 | (2.14) | 7.91 | |
| TKHVY | Turk Hava Yollari | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.19 | (2.86) | 12.37 | |
| QUBSF | Qantas Airways Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.98 | (3.50) | 13.44 | |
| GPAEF | Grupo Aeroportuario del | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.21 | 4.46 | (0.53) | 11.03 | |
| ALNPF | ANA Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AEOXF | Aeroports de Paris | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.21 | (9.01) | 19.28 | |
| CPCAF | Cathay Pacific Airways | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 37.90 | |
| SNCAF | AtkinsRalis Group | (0.12) | 3 per month | 1.94 | 0.01 | 4.36 | (3.67) | 8.19 | |
| OROVF | Orient Overseas Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Deutsche Lufthansa
For every potential investor in Deutsche, whether a beginner or expert, Deutsche Lufthansa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Deutsche OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Deutsche. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Deutsche Lufthansa's price trends.Deutsche Lufthansa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Deutsche Lufthansa otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Deutsche Lufthansa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Deutsche Lufthansa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Deutsche Lufthansa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deutsche Lufthansa otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deutsche Lufthansa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deutsche Lufthansa otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Deutsche Lufthansa AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Deutsche Lufthansa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Deutsche Lufthansa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deutsche Lufthansa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deutsche otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.12 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Deutsche Lufthansa
The number of cover stories for Deutsche Lufthansa depends on current market conditions and Deutsche Lufthansa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Deutsche Lufthansa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Deutsche Lufthansa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Deutsche OTC Stock Analysis
When running Deutsche Lufthansa's price analysis, check to measure Deutsche Lufthansa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Deutsche Lufthansa is operating at the current time. Most of Deutsche Lufthansa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Deutsche Lufthansa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Deutsche Lufthansa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Deutsche Lufthansa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.