Destinations Small-mid Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

DSMFX Fund  USD 15.60  0.05  0.32%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Destinations Small Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.02. Destinations Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Destinations Small-mid's share price is below 20 suggesting that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Destinations Small-mid's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Destinations Small Mid Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Destinations Small-mid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Destinations Small Mid Cap from the perspective of Destinations Small-mid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Destinations Small Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.02.

Destinations Small-mid after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 23.99  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Destinations Small-mid to cross-verify your projections.

Destinations Small-mid Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Destinations price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Destinations using various technical indicators. When you analyze Destinations charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Destinations Small-mid price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Destinations Small-mid Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Destinations Small Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Destinations Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Destinations Small-mid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Destinations Small-mid Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Destinations Small-midDestinations Small-mid Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Destinations Small-mid Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Destinations Small-mid's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Destinations Small-mid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.97 and 16.67, respectively. We have considered Destinations Small-mid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.60
15.32
Expected Value
16.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Destinations Small-mid mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Destinations Small-mid mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2182
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3551
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0262
SAESum of the absolute errors22.016
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Destinations Small Mid Cap historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Destinations Small-mid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Destinations Small Mid. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.0423.9925.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.0417.7719.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.9114.4015.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Destinations Small-mid. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Destinations Small-mid's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Destinations Small-mid's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Destinations Small Mid.

Destinations Small-mid After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Destinations Small-mid at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Destinations Small-mid or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Destinations Small-mid, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Destinations Small-mid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Destinations Small-mid's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Destinations Small-mid's historical news coverage. Destinations Small-mid's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.04 and 25.34, respectively. We have considered Destinations Small-mid's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
15.60
23.99
After-hype Price
25.34
Upside
Destinations Small-mid is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Destinations Small Mid is based on 3 months time horizon.

Destinations Small-mid Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Destinations Small-mid is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Destinations Small-mid backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Destinations Small-mid, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.26 
1.35
  8.71 
  1.88 
3 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
15.60
23.99
53.81 
4.03  
Notes

Destinations Small-mid Hype Timeline

Destinations Small Mid is currently traded for 15.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 8.71, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.88. Destinations is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 23.994285714285713 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 4.03%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 53.81%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Destinations Small-mid is about 18.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.48. Debt can assist Destinations Small-mid until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Destinations Small-mid's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Destinations Small Mid sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Destinations to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Destinations Small-mid's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Destinations Small-mid to cross-verify your projections.

Destinations Small-mid Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Destinations Small-mid's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Destinations Small-mid's future price movements. Getting to know how Destinations Small-mid's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Destinations Small-mid may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Destinations Small-mid

For every potential investor in Destinations, whether a beginner or expert, Destinations Small-mid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Destinations Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Destinations. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Destinations Small-mid's price trends.

Destinations Small-mid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Destinations Small-mid mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Destinations Small-mid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Destinations Small-mid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Destinations Small-mid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Destinations Small-mid mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Destinations Small-mid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Destinations Small-mid mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Destinations Small Mid Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Destinations Small-mid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Destinations Small-mid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Destinations Small-mid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting destinations mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Destinations Small-mid

The number of cover stories for Destinations Small-mid depends on current market conditions and Destinations Small-mid's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Destinations Small-mid is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Destinations Small-mid's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Destinations Mutual Fund

Destinations Small-mid financial ratios help investors to determine whether Destinations Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Destinations with respect to the benefits of owning Destinations Small-mid security.
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