Destinations Small-mid Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DSMFX Fund  USD 15.69  0.07  0.45%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Destinations Small Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.81. Destinations Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Destinations Small-mid - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Destinations Small-mid prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Destinations Small-mid price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Destinations Small Mid.

Destinations Small-mid Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Destinations Small Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Destinations Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Destinations Small-mid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Destinations Small-mid Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Destinations Small-midDestinations Small-mid Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Destinations Small-mid Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Destinations Small-mid's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Destinations Small-mid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.70 and 16.77, respectively. We have considered Destinations Small-mid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.69
15.74
Expected Value
16.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Destinations Small-mid mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Destinations Small-mid mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0193
MADMean absolute deviation0.1154
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0079
SAESum of the absolute errors6.8079
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Destinations Small-mid observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Destinations Small Mid Cap observations.

Predictive Modules for Destinations Small-mid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Destinations Small Mid. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.6515.6916.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.3615.4016.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.8515.4316.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Destinations Small-mid. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Destinations Small-mid's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Destinations Small-mid's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Destinations Small Mid.

Other Forecasting Options for Destinations Small-mid

For every potential investor in Destinations, whether a beginner or expert, Destinations Small-mid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Destinations Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Destinations. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Destinations Small-mid's price trends.

Destinations Small-mid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Destinations Small-mid mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Destinations Small-mid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Destinations Small-mid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Destinations Small Mid Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Destinations Small-mid's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Destinations Small-mid's current price.

Destinations Small-mid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Destinations Small-mid mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Destinations Small-mid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Destinations Small-mid mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Destinations Small Mid Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Destinations Small-mid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Destinations Small-mid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Destinations Small-mid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting destinations mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Destinations Mutual Fund

Destinations Small-mid financial ratios help investors to determine whether Destinations Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Destinations with respect to the benefits of owning Destinations Small-mid security.
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