Dynex Capital Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| DX Stock | USD 14.48 0.04 0.28% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Dynex Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 14.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.66. Dynex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Dynex Capital's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.842 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.298 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9394 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3883 | Wall Street Target Price 14.7 |
Using Dynex Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dynex Capital from the perspective of Dynex Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Dynex Capital using Dynex Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Dynex using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Dynex Capital's stock price.
Dynex Capital Short Interest
An investor who is long Dynex Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Dynex Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge Dynex Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.8142 | Short Percent 0.0663 | Short Ratio 2.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.4 M | 50 Day MA 13.847 |
Dynex Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Dynex Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dynex. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dynex can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dynex Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Dynex Capital Implied Volatility | 1.16 |
Dynex Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dynex Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dynex Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dynex Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dynex Capital's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Dynex Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 14.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.66. Dynex Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 14.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dynex Capital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Dynex contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Dynex Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0725% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Dynex Capital trading at USD 14.48, that is roughly USD 0.0105 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Dynex Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Dynex Capital options at the current volatility level of 1.16%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Dynex Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Dynex Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Dynex Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Dynex Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Dynex Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Dynex Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Dynex Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Dynex. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Dynex Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dynex price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dynex using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dynex charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dynex Capital Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Dynex Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 14.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dynex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dynex Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dynex Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dynex Capital | Dynex Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dynex Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dynex Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dynex Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.58 and 15.34, respectively. We have considered Dynex Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dynex Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dynex Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.5333 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0366 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1129 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.66 |
Predictive Modules for Dynex Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dynex Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dynex Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dynex Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dynex Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dynex Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dynex Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dynex Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dynex Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dynex Capital's historical news coverage. Dynex Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.61 and 15.37, respectively. We have considered Dynex Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dynex Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dynex Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dynex Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dynex Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dynex Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dynex Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 0.88 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.48 | 14.49 | 0.07 |
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Dynex Capital Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 Dynex Capital is listed for 14.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Dynex is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.49 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Dynex Capital is about 1800.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.49. The company generated the yearly revenue of 150.4 M. Reported Net Income was 113.9 M with gross profit of 230.45 M. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dynex Capital to cross-verify your projections.Dynex Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dynex Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dynex Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Dynex Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dynex Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | (0.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.39 | (4.81) | 14.67 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.89 | 0.17 | 2.17 | (1.61) | 6.26 | |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.15 | (0.08) | 2.09 | (1.56) | 5.63 | |
| ADC | Agree Realty | 0.54 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.23 | (1.37) | 3.42 | |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment | 0.19 | 9 per month | 1.00 | 0.09 | 2.51 | (2.21) | 11.78 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.19 | (4.92) | 14.40 | |
| MFA | MFA Financial | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.81 | 0.08 | 2.36 | (1.47) | 6.46 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.19) | 12 per month | 0.87 | (0.01) | 1.27 | (1.36) | 6.68 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.66 | (2.77) | 6.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dynex Capital
For every potential investor in Dynex, whether a beginner or expert, Dynex Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dynex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dynex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dynex Capital's price trends.Dynex Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dynex Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dynex Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dynex Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dynex Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dynex Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dynex Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dynex Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dynex Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Dynex Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dynex Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dynex Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dynex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6887 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5054 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8817 | |||
| Variance | 0.7774 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5562 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2554 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dynex Capital
The number of cover stories for Dynex Capital depends on current market conditions and Dynex Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dynex Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dynex Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Dynex Capital Short Properties
Dynex Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dynex Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dynex Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dynex Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dynex Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 377.2 M |
Additional Tools for Dynex Stock Analysis
When running Dynex Capital's price analysis, check to measure Dynex Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dynex Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Dynex Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dynex Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dynex Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dynex Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.