Edel SE Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EDL Stock | EUR 4.54 0.00 0.00% |
Edel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Edel SE stock prices and determine the direction of Edel SE Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Edel SE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Edel SE's stock price is about 67 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Edel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Edel SE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Edel SE Co from the perspective of Edel SE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Edel SE Co on the next trading day is expected to be 4.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.01. Edel SE after-hype prediction price | EUR 4.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Edel |
Edel SE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Edel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Edel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Edel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Edel SE Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Edel SE Co on the next trading day is expected to be 4.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Edel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Edel SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Edel SE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Edel SE | Edel SE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Edel SE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Edel SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Edel SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.80 and 5.28, respectively. We have considered Edel SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Edel SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Edel SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.3424 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0055 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0168 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.0051 |
Predictive Modules for Edel SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Edel SE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Edel SE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Edel SE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Edel SE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Edel SE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Edel SE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Edel SE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Edel SE's historical news coverage. Edel SE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.80 and 5.28, respectively. We have considered Edel SE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Edel SE is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Edel SE is based on 3 months time horizon.
Edel SE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Edel SE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Edel SE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Edel SE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.54 | 4.54 | 0.00 |
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Edel SE Hype Timeline
Edel SE is currently traded for 4.54on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Edel is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Edel SE is about 196.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.57. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.61. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Edel SE last dividend was issued on the May 24, 2018. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Edel SE to cross-verify your projections.Edel SE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Edel SE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Edel SE's future price movements. Getting to know how Edel SE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Edel SE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 9X8 | Groupe Pizzorno Environnement | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | 0.03 | 2.49 | (1.71) | 7.42 | |
| BH5 | BLUESCOPE STEEL | 0.1 | 4 per month | 1.12 | 0.19 | 3.97 | (2.22) | 20.05 | |
| NPSA | NIPPON STEEL SPADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.60 | (2.65) | 18.50 | |
| IC1B | INTERCONT HOTELS | 2.00 | 6 per month | 1.29 | 0.03 | 3.36 | (2.54) | 7.92 | |
| 9ZY | ALGOMA STEEL GROUP | (0.08) | 7 per month | 4.69 | 0.01 | 8.43 | (8.56) | 20.22 | |
| PD0 | Pebblebrook Hotel Trust | 0.00 | 10 per month | 1.54 | 0.02 | 3.79 | (2.83) | 14.07 | |
| RS6 | RELIANCE STEEL AL | 1.00 | 1 per month | 0.60 | 0.18 | 2.76 | (1.42) | 4.30 | |
| EM7A | Emperor Entertainment Hotel | 0.00 | 3 per month | 2.19 | (0) | 4.55 | (4.17) | 24.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Edel SE
For every potential investor in Edel, whether a beginner or expert, Edel SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Edel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Edel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Edel SE's price trends.Edel SE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Edel SE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Edel SE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Edel SE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Edel SE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Edel SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Edel SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Edel SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Edel SE Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Edel SE Risk Indicators
The analysis of Edel SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Edel SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting edel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4127 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2729 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7061 | |||
| Variance | 0.4985 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0745 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Edel SE
The number of cover stories for Edel SE depends on current market conditions and Edel SE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Edel SE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Edel SE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Edel SE Short Properties
Edel SE's future price predictability will typically decrease when Edel SE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Edel SE Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Edel SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Edel SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.3 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0658 |
Other Information on Investing in Edel Stock
Edel SE financial ratios help investors to determine whether Edel Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Edel with respect to the benefits of owning Edel SE security.