Egypt Aluminum Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

EGAL Stock   111.55  1.15  1.02%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Egypt Aluminum on the next trading day is expected to be 112.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 160.22. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Egypt Aluminum's stock prices and determine the direction of Egypt Aluminum's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Egypt Aluminum's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Egypt Aluminum price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Egypt Aluminum Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Egypt Aluminum on the next trading day is expected to be 112.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.63, mean absolute percentage error of 11.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 160.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Egypt Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Egypt Aluminum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Egypt Aluminum Stock Forecast Pattern

Egypt Aluminum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Egypt Aluminum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Egypt Aluminum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 110.14 and 114.04, respectively. We have considered Egypt Aluminum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
111.55
110.14
Downside
112.09
Expected Value
114.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Egypt Aluminum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Egypt Aluminum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.5467
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.6266
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0231
SAESum of the absolute errors160.2249
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Egypt Aluminum historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Egypt Aluminum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Egypt Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Egypt Aluminum

For every potential investor in Egypt, whether a beginner or expert, Egypt Aluminum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Egypt Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Egypt. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Egypt Aluminum's price trends.

Egypt Aluminum Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Egypt Aluminum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Egypt Aluminum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Egypt Aluminum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Egypt Aluminum Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Egypt Aluminum's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Egypt Aluminum's current price.

Egypt Aluminum Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Egypt Aluminum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Egypt Aluminum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Egypt Aluminum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Egypt Aluminum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Egypt Aluminum Risk Indicators

The analysis of Egypt Aluminum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Egypt Aluminum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting egypt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.