Elvalhalcor Hellenic Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ELHA Stock | 4.09 0.04 0.97% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper on the next trading day is expected to be 4.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.82. Elvalhalcor Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Elvalhalcor Hellenic's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Elvalhalcor Hellenic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper from the perspective of Elvalhalcor Hellenic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper on the next trading day is expected to be 4.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.82. Elvalhalcor Hellenic after-hype prediction price | EUR 4.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Elvalhalcor |
Elvalhalcor Hellenic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elvalhalcor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elvalhalcor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elvalhalcor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Elvalhalcor Hellenic Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper on the next trading day is expected to be 4.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elvalhalcor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elvalhalcor Hellenic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Elvalhalcor Hellenic Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Elvalhalcor Hellenic | Elvalhalcor Hellenic Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Elvalhalcor Hellenic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Elvalhalcor Hellenic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elvalhalcor Hellenic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.79 and 6.39, respectively. We have considered Elvalhalcor Hellenic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elvalhalcor Hellenic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elvalhalcor Hellenic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.2935 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.017 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0637 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.82 |
Predictive Modules for Elvalhalcor Hellenic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elvalhalcor Hellenic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elvalhalcor Hellenic After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elvalhalcor Hellenic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elvalhalcor Hellenic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Elvalhalcor Hellenic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elvalhalcor Hellenic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elvalhalcor Hellenic's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elvalhalcor Hellenic's historical news coverage. Elvalhalcor Hellenic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.79 and 6.39, respectively. We have considered Elvalhalcor Hellenic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elvalhalcor Hellenic is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elvalhalcor Hellenic is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elvalhalcor Hellenic Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Elvalhalcor Hellenic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elvalhalcor Hellenic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elvalhalcor Hellenic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.09 | 4.09 | 0.00 |
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Elvalhalcor Hellenic Hype Timeline
Elvalhalcor Hellenic is currently traded for 4.09on Athens Exchange of Greece. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Elvalhalcor is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on Elvalhalcor Hellenic is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.09. About 85.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.66. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Elvalhalcor Hellenic last dividend was issued on the 30th of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elvalhalcor Hellenic to cross-verify your projections.Elvalhalcor Hellenic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elvalhalcor Hellenic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elvalhalcor Hellenic's future price movements. Getting to know how Elvalhalcor Hellenic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elvalhalcor Hellenic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INLIF | Interlife General Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.11 | 4.17 | (2.15) | 7.51 | |
| TELL | Bank of Greece | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.47 | 0.03 | 1.02 | (1.00) | 3.89 | |
| CENTR | Centric Holdings SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | (0.01) | 3.03 | (2.94) | 6.07 | |
| CNLCAP | CNL Capital EKES AIFM | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | (0.04) | 2.84 | (2.08) | 8.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Elvalhalcor Hellenic
For every potential investor in Elvalhalcor, whether a beginner or expert, Elvalhalcor Hellenic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elvalhalcor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elvalhalcor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elvalhalcor Hellenic's price trends.Elvalhalcor Hellenic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elvalhalcor Hellenic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elvalhalcor Hellenic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elvalhalcor Hellenic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Elvalhalcor Hellenic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elvalhalcor Hellenic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elvalhalcor Hellenic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elvalhalcor Hellenic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Elvalhalcor Hellenic Risk Indicators
The analysis of Elvalhalcor Hellenic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elvalhalcor Hellenic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elvalhalcor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Variance | 4.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Elvalhalcor Hellenic
The number of cover stories for Elvalhalcor Hellenic depends on current market conditions and Elvalhalcor Hellenic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elvalhalcor Hellenic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elvalhalcor Hellenic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Elvalhalcor Stock Analysis
When running Elvalhalcor Hellenic's price analysis, check to measure Elvalhalcor Hellenic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elvalhalcor Hellenic is operating at the current time. Most of Elvalhalcor Hellenic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elvalhalcor Hellenic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elvalhalcor Hellenic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elvalhalcor Hellenic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.