Ellomay Capital Stock Forward View
| ELLO Stock | USD 25.00 -0.39 -1.54% |
Ellomay Capital's Naive Prediction forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The fit is assessed against recent observations, so the output reflects the latest available data. When MAPE exceeds 10%, the model's short-term predictive value is significantly reduced. The Naive Prediction model projects Ellomay Capital at 25.77 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Naive Prediction output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Ellomay Capital Cash Forecast
Accurate cash forecasting for Ellomay Capital requires identifying the key drivers in Ellomay Capital's financial statements. The trajectory of Ellomay Capital's key financial metrics is modeled across multiple analytical frameworks. Advanced models applied to Ellomay Capital's data identify non-obvious patterns that simple extrapolation misses. Pattern detection within Ellomay Capital's financial history anchors the probability-weighted performance outlook.
Cash | First Reported 1995-09-30 | Previous Quarter 49.95 million | Current Value 88.25 million | Quarterly Volatility 24.56 million |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Ellomay Capital at 25.77 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 39.58 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Ellomay Capital's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ellomay Capital | Ellomay Capital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Ellomay Capital's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The forecast band spans 23.03 to 28.51. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Ellomay Capital stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8463 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6489 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0249 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.5802 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ellomay Capital
Volume-weighted price analysis for Ellomay Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line identify shifts in Ellomay momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Ellomay Capital's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Ellomay Stock price action.Ellomay Capital Related Equities
These stocks within the Utilities space are often compared to Ellomay Capital by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Ellomay Capital's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. The peer review below gives a clear framework for judging Ellomay Capital's standing among rivals.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ellomay Capital Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Ellomay Capital, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Ellomay Capital. These metrics are particularly useful when Ellomay Capital stock shows divergence from broader market trends. These metrics provide additional context for comparing intraday conviction with broader price movement in Ellomay Capital.
Ellomay Capital Risk Indicators
Analyzing Ellomay Capital's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for ellomay stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Ellomay Capital. Semi-deviation focuses exclusively on returns below the mean, making it a more conservative risk gauge for Ellomay Capital than full standard deviation. The risk-return trade-off for ellomay stock becomes clearer when downside and total variance are viewed together.
| Mean Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Ellomay Capital Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Ellomay Capital reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.66 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 88.25 million | |
| Shares Float | 1.16 million |