Ellomay Capital Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ELLO Stock | USD 26.10 0.10 0.38% |
Ellomay Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ellomay Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ellomay Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ellomay Capital fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Ellomay Capital's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ellomay Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.146 | Wall Street Target Price 11.3 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.006 |
Using Ellomay Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ellomay Capital from the perspective of Ellomay Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Ellomay Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ellomay Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 26.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.08.Ellomay Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ellomay Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ellomay. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ellomay can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ellomay Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ellomay Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ellomay Capital.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ellomay Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 26.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.08. Ellomay Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 26.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellomay Capital to cross-verify your projections. Ellomay Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ellomay price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ellomay using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ellomay charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ellomay Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ellomay Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 26.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ellomay Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ellomay Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ellomay Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ellomay Capital | Ellomay Capital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ellomay Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ellomay Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ellomay Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.68 and 29.59, respectively. We have considered Ellomay Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ellomay Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ellomay Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7865 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.131 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5347 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0218 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.081 |
Predictive Modules for Ellomay Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellomay Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ellomay Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ellomay Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ellomay Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ellomay Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ellomay Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ellomay Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ellomay Capital's historical news coverage. Ellomay Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.56 and 29.46, respectively. We have considered Ellomay Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ellomay Capital is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ellomay Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ellomay Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ellomay Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ellomay Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ellomay Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 3.45 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
26.10 | 26.01 | 0.34 |
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Ellomay Capital Hype Timeline
Ellomay Capital is currently traded for 26.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ellomay is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 26.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.34%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.43%. The volatility of related hype on Ellomay Capital is about 43125.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.10. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Ellomay Capital was currently reported as 10.93. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.07. Ellomay Capital last dividend was issued on the 4th of April 2016. The entity had 1:10 split on the 9th of June 2011. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellomay Capital to cross-verify your projections.Ellomay Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ellomay Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ellomay Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Ellomay Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ellomay Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NXXT | NextNRG | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 14.94 | (12.03) | 50.65 | |
| PCYO | Pure Cycle | (0.33) | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.02 | 3.36 | (2.18) | 7.99 | |
| MNTK | Montauk Renewables | 0.05 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.54 | (7.81) | 23.04 | |
| GWRS | Global Water Resources | 0.07 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.21 | (3.82) | 9.15 | |
| VGAS | Verde Clean Fuels | (0.19) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.11 | (8.27) | 22.32 | |
| CDZI | Cadiz Inc | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.11 | (6.10) | 20.69 | |
| GPJA | Georgia Power Co | 0.19 | 6 per month | 0.51 | (0.11) | 0.85 | (0.88) | 1.82 | |
| RGCO | RGC Resources | 0.03 | 7 per month | 1.30 | 0.02 | 3.49 | (2.06) | 9.60 | |
| ARTNA | Artesian Resources | 0.11 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.82 | (2.22) | 7.00 | |
| NFE | New Fortress Energy | 0.01 | 9 per month | 6.36 | 0.0004 | 14.41 | (10.19) | 45.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ellomay Capital
For every potential investor in Ellomay, whether a beginner or expert, Ellomay Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ellomay Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ellomay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ellomay Capital's price trends.Ellomay Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ellomay Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ellomay Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ellomay Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ellomay Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ellomay Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ellomay Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ellomay Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ellomay Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.91 |
Ellomay Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ellomay Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ellomay Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ellomay stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Variance | 11.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ellomay Capital
The number of cover stories for Ellomay Capital depends on current market conditions and Ellomay Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ellomay Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ellomay Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ellomay Capital Short Properties
Ellomay Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ellomay Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ellomay Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ellomay Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellomay Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellomay Capital to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Ellomay Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ellomay Capital guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Will Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers sector continue expanding? Could Ellomay diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellomay Capital. Projected growth potential of Ellomay fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Ellomay Capital data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.146 | Earnings Share (0.07) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.006 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Ellomay Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ellomay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ellomay Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ellomay Capital's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Ellomay Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ellomay Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Ellomay Capital's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Ellomay Capital should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Ellomay Capital's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.