Electro Sensors Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ELSE Stock | USD 4.41 0.09 2.08% |
Electro Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Electro Sensors stock prices and determine the direction of Electro Sensors's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Electro Sensors' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Electro Sensors' share price is at 50 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Electro Sensors, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
Using Electro Sensors hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Electro Sensors from the perspective of Electro Sensors response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electro Sensors on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.02. Electro Sensors after-hype prediction price | USD 4.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electro Sensors to cross-verify your projections. Electro Sensors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Electro price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Electro using various technical indicators. When you analyze Electro charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Electro Sensors Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electro Sensors on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Electro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Electro Sensors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Electro Sensors Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Electro Sensors | Electro Sensors Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Electro Sensors Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Electro Sensors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Electro Sensors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.62 and 6.20, respectively. We have considered Electro Sensors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Electro Sensors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Electro Sensors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.0272 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0065 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0504 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.0226 |
Predictive Modules for Electro Sensors
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electro Sensors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Electro Sensors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Electro Sensors After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Electro Sensors at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Electro Sensors or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Electro Sensors, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Electro Sensors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Electro Sensors' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Electro Sensors' historical news coverage. Electro Sensors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.62 and 6.20, respectively. We have considered Electro Sensors' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Electro Sensors is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Electro Sensors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Electro Sensors Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Electro Sensors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Electro Sensors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Electro Sensors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.41 | 4.41 | 0.00 |
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Electro Sensors Hype Timeline
Electro Sensors is currently traded for 4.41. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Electro is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Electro Sensors is about 8407.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.41. About 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.04. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Electro Sensors last dividend was issued on the 8th of May 2013. The entity had 3:2 split on the 27th of February 2001. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electro Sensors to cross-verify your projections.Electro Sensors Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Electro Sensors' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Electro Sensors' future price movements. Getting to know how Electro Sensors' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Electro Sensors may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SVREW | SaverOne 2014 Ltd | (0) | 4 per month | 16.75 | 0.09 | 60.00 | (30.91) | 130.46 | |
| MTEK | Maris Tech | 0.03 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.70 | (9.52) | 36.00 | |
| CXAI | CXApp Inc | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 8.11 | (10.87) | 36.84 | |
| TGHL | The GrowHub Limited | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 10.53 | (9.09) | 28.46 | |
| BLIN | Bridgeline Digital | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.10 | (7.78) | 22.82 | |
| GLE | Global Engine Group | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 11.63 | (10.20) | 53.24 | |
| AMOD | Alpha Modus Holdings | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.23 | (8.77) | 41.10 | |
| DTSS | Datasea | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 14.63 | (12.60) | 31.30 | |
| AMST | Amesite Operating Co | (0.22) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.82 | (8.49) | 30.71 | |
| STEC | Santech Holdings Limited | (0.01) | 6 per month | 5.46 | 0.05 | 14.44 | (9.37) | 48.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Electro Sensors
For every potential investor in Electro, whether a beginner or expert, Electro Sensors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Electro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Electro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Electro Sensors' price trends.Electro Sensors Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Electro Sensors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Electro Sensors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Electro Sensors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Electro Sensors Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Electro Sensors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Electro Sensors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Electro Sensors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Electro Sensors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Electro Sensors Risk Indicators
The analysis of Electro Sensors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Electro Sensors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting electro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Variance | 2.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Electro Sensors
The number of cover stories for Electro Sensors depends on current market conditions and Electro Sensors' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Electro Sensors is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Electro Sensors' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Electro Sensors Short Properties
Electro Sensors' future price predictability will typically decrease when Electro Sensors' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Electro Sensors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Electro Sensors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Electro Sensors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electro Sensors to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Electro Stock refer to our How to Trade Electro Stock guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Electro Sensors. If investors know Electro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Electro Sensors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share 0.12 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Electro Sensors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Electro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Electro Sensors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Electro Sensors' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Electro Sensors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Electro Sensors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Electro Sensors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Electro Sensors is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Electro Sensors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.