Sayona Mining Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ELVR Stock | 48.06 2.06 4.48% |
Sayona Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Sayona Mining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Sayona Mining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sayona Mining fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength momentum indicator of Sayona Mining's share price is approaching 48 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sayona Mining, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.229 |
Using Sayona Mining hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sayona Mining Limited from the perspective of Sayona Mining response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sayona Mining Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 47.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.90. Sayona Mining after-hype prediction price | USD 48.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sayona Mining to cross-verify your projections. Sayona Mining Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sayona price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sayona using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sayona charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sayona Mining Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sayona Mining Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 47.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28, mean absolute percentage error of 8.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sayona Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sayona Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sayona Mining Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sayona Mining | Sayona Mining Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Sayona Mining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sayona Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sayona Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.35 and 52.99, respectively. We have considered Sayona Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sayona Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sayona Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1173 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2817 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0499 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 136.901 |
Predictive Modules for Sayona Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sayona Mining Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sayona Mining's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sayona Mining After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sayona Mining at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sayona Mining or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sayona Mining, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sayona Mining Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sayona Mining's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sayona Mining's historical news coverage. Sayona Mining's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.22 and 53.90, respectively. We have considered Sayona Mining's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sayona Mining is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sayona Mining Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sayona Mining Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sayona Mining is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sayona Mining backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sayona Mining, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.24 | 5.82 | 5.90 | 0.59 | 1 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
48.06 | 48.06 | 0.00 |
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Sayona Mining Hype Timeline
Sayona Mining Limited is currently traded for 48.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -5.9, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.59. Sayona is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 122.27%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sayona Mining is about 1215.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.65. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.46. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Sayona Mining Limited recorded a loss per share of 26.57. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 16th of September 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sayona Mining to cross-verify your projections.Sayona Mining Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sayona Mining's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sayona Mining's future price movements. Getting to know how Sayona Mining's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sayona Mining may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EXK | Endeavour Silver Corp | 0.28 | 10 per month | 4.18 | 0.10 | 9.31 | (5.34) | 32.14 | |
| PPTA | Perpetua Resources Corp | 0.65 | 9 per month | 4.78 | 0.04 | 7.23 | (6.93) | 30.39 | |
| NGVT | Ingevity Corp | 0.78 | 10 per month | 2.92 | 0.14 | 3.83 | (2.65) | 18.74 | |
| FSM | Fortuna Silver Mines | (0.45) | 10 per month | 3.15 | 0.09 | 4.51 | (3.97) | 25.09 | |
| ASH | Ashland Global Holdings | 1.07 | 10 per month | 1.30 | 0.13 | 4.54 | (2.64) | 13.67 | |
| CC | Chemours Co | 0.53 | 10 per month | 2.75 | 0.09 | 6.03 | (4.61) | 16.17 | |
| ERO | Ero Copper Corp | 0.64 | 8 per month | 2.79 | 0.23 | 5.74 | (3.87) | 18.18 | |
| SKE | Skeena Resources | (0.55) | 6 per month | 3.07 | 0.25 | 6.44 | (4.49) | 23.05 | |
| DRD | DRDGOLD Limited ADR | 1.40 | 6 per month | 3.47 | 0.13 | 5.10 | (8.22) | 18.57 | |
| FMC | FMC Corporation | 0.44 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.71 | (5.71) | 46.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sayona Mining
For every potential investor in Sayona, whether a beginner or expert, Sayona Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sayona Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sayona. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sayona Mining's price trends.Sayona Mining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sayona Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sayona Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sayona Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sayona Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sayona Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sayona Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sayona Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sayona Mining Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sayona Mining Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sayona Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sayona Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sayona stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.85 | |||
| Variance | 34.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 30.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sayona Mining
The number of cover stories for Sayona Mining depends on current market conditions and Sayona Mining's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sayona Mining is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sayona Mining's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sayona Mining Short Properties
Sayona Mining's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sayona Mining's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sayona Mining Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sayona Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sayona Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 72.3 M |
Additional Tools for Sayona Stock Analysis
When running Sayona Mining's price analysis, check to measure Sayona Mining's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sayona Mining is operating at the current time. Most of Sayona Mining's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sayona Mining's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sayona Mining's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sayona Mining to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.