Fortuna Silver Mines Stock Price Prediction
| FSM Stock | USD 4.82 0.15 3.02% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.778 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.19 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.5709 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.712 | Wall Street Target Price 6.75 |
Using Fortuna Silver hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fortuna Silver Mines from the perspective of Fortuna Silver response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Fortuna Silver to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Fortuna because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Fortuna Silver after-hype prediction price | USD 4.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Fortuna |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fortuna Silver's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fortuna Silver After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fortuna Silver at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fortuna Silver or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fortuna Silver, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fortuna Silver Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fortuna Silver's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fortuna Silver's historical news coverage. Fortuna Silver's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.68 and 8.30, respectively. We have considered Fortuna Silver's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fortuna Silver is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fortuna Silver Mines is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fortuna Silver Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fortuna Silver is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fortuna Silver backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fortuna Silver, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 3.33 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.82 | 4.99 | 0.40 |
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Fortuna Silver Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November Fortuna Silver Mines is traded for 4.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Fortuna is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.4%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Fortuna Silver is about 66600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.82. The company reported the last year's revenue of 842.43 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (51.77 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 146.8 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Fortuna Silver Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Fortuna Silver Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fortuna Silver's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fortuna Silver's future price movements. Getting to know how Fortuna Silver's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fortuna Silver may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FTCO | Fortitude Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.29 | 0.10 | 3.19 | (2.33) | 16.65 | |
| GLDG | GoldMining | (0.01) | 2 per month | 1.74 | (0.01) | 4.26 | (2.91) | 11.50 |
Fortuna Silver Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fortuna price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fortuna using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fortuna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Fortuna Silver Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Fortuna Silver stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Fortuna Silver Mines, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fortuna Silver based on analysis of Fortuna Silver hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Fortuna Silver's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Fortuna Silver's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 4.78 | 7.37 | 6.5 | 6.17 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 79.43 | 62.82 | 64.8 | 40.3 |
Story Coverage note for Fortuna Silver
The number of cover stories for Fortuna Silver depends on current market conditions and Fortuna Silver's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fortuna Silver is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fortuna Silver's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Fortuna Silver Short Properties
Fortuna Silver's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fortuna Silver's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fortuna Silver Mines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fortuna Silver's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fortuna Silver's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 295.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 128.1 M |
Check out Fortuna Silver Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fortuna Silver. If investors know Fortuna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fortuna Silver listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.778 | Earnings Share 0.07 | Revenue Per Share 3.329 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.131 | Return On Assets 0.0404 |
The market value of Fortuna Silver Mines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fortuna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fortuna Silver's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fortuna Silver's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fortuna Silver's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fortuna Silver's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortuna Silver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortuna Silver is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortuna Silver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.