EPL Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

EPL Stock   277.80  7.65  2.68%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EPL Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 277.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 306.60. EPL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast EPL stock prices and determine the direction of EPL Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of EPL's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, EPL's Non Currrent Assets Other are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Good Will is expected to grow to about 1.7 B, whereas Short and Long Term Debt Total is forecasted to decline to about 8.6 B.
EPL simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for EPL Limited are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as EPL Limited prices get older.

EPL Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EPL Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 277.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.11, mean absolute percentage error of 45.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 306.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EPL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EPL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

EPL Stock Forecast Pattern

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EPL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting EPL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EPL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 275.19 and 280.35, respectively. We have considered EPL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
277.80
275.19
Downside
277.77
Expected Value
280.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EPL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EPL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.082
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.5516
MADMean absolute deviation5.11
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0196
SAESum of the absolute errors306.6022
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting EPL Limited forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent EPL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for EPL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EPL Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
275.28277.86280.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
244.66247.24305.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
256.65265.95275.24
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.522.652.75
Details

Other Forecasting Options for EPL

For every potential investor in EPL, whether a beginner or expert, EPL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EPL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EPL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EPL's price trends.

EPL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EPL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EPL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EPL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

EPL Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of EPL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of EPL's current price.

EPL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EPL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EPL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EPL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EPL Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

EPL Risk Indicators

The analysis of EPL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EPL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting epl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in EPL Stock

EPL financial ratios help investors to determine whether EPL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EPL with respect to the benefits of owning EPL security.