EPR Properties Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

EPR Stock  USD 52.67  1.50  2.77%   
EPR Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although EPR Properties' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of EPR Properties' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of EPR Properties fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of EPR Properties' share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling EPR Properties, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 52

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of EPR Properties' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of EPR Properties and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from EPR Properties' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with EPR Properties, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting EPR Properties' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.491
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.7296
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.1153
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.9769
Wall Street Target Price
57.775
Using EPR Properties hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of EPR Properties from the perspective of EPR Properties response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards EPR Properties using EPR Properties' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards EPR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of EPR Properties' stock price.

EPR Properties Short Interest

An investor who is long EPR Properties may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about EPR Properties and may potentially protect profits, hedge EPR Properties with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
53.7504
Short Percent
0.0885
Short Ratio
6.63
Shares Short Prior Month
4.7 M
50 Day MA
51.6534

EPR Relative Strength Index

The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EPR Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 51.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.09.

EPR Properties Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to EPR Properties' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in EPR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding EPR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around EPR Properties. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of EPR Properties' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about EPR Properties.

EPR Properties Implied Volatility

    
  0.37  
EPR Properties' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of EPR Properties stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if EPR Properties' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that EPR Properties stock will not fluctuate a lot when EPR Properties' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EPR Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 51.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.09.

EPR Properties after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 52.7  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EPR Properties to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in EPR Stock, please use our How to Invest in EPR Properties guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current EPR contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that EPR Properties will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With EPR Properties trading at USD 52.67, that is roughly USD 0.0122 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating EPR Properties' daily price movement you should consider acquiring EPR Properties options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 EPR Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast EPR Properties' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in EPR Properties' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for EPR Properties stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current EPR Properties' open interest, investors have to compare it to EPR Properties' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of EPR Properties is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in EPR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

EPR Properties Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine EPR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for EPR using various technical indicators. When you analyze EPR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for EPR Properties works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

EPR Properties Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EPR Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 51.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EPR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EPR Properties' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

EPR Properties Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest EPR Properties  EPR Properties Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

EPR Properties Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting EPR Properties' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EPR Properties' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.37 and 53.05, respectively. We have considered EPR Properties' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
52.67
51.71
Expected Value
53.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EPR Properties stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EPR Properties stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0862
MADMean absolute deviation0.5608
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.011
SAESum of the absolute errors33.0862
When EPR Properties prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any EPR Properties trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent EPR Properties observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for EPR Properties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EPR Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.3652.7054.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
47.4055.0656.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
48.1252.2856.45
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
52.5857.7764.13
Details

EPR Properties After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of EPR Properties at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in EPR Properties or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of EPR Properties, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

EPR Properties Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting EPR Properties' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on EPR Properties' historical news coverage. EPR Properties' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.36 and 54.04, respectively. We have considered EPR Properties' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
52.67
52.70
After-hype Price
54.04
Upside
EPR Properties is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of EPR Properties is based on 3 months time horizon.

EPR Properties Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as EPR Properties is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading EPR Properties backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with EPR Properties, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
1.34
  0.03 
  0.07 
10 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
52.67
52.70
0.06 
311.63  
Notes

EPR Properties Hype Timeline

On the 27th of January EPR Properties is traded for 52.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. EPR is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 52.7 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on EPR Properties is about 109.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.74. The company reported the last year's revenue of 641 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 146.07 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 647.65 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EPR Properties to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in EPR Stock, please use our How to Invest in EPR Properties guide.

EPR Properties Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to EPR Properties' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict EPR Properties' future price movements. Getting to know how EPR Properties' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how EPR Properties may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SBRASabra Healthcare REIT(0.27)10 per month 1.14  0.01  2.04 (1.68) 5.40 
RYNRayonier(0.10)11 per month 1.45 (0.02) 3.60 (2.60) 8.02 
KRGKite Realty Group(0.16)9 per month 0.95 (0.04) 2.04 (1.65) 5.39 
PECOPhillips Edison Co 0.10 7 per month 0.62 (0.03) 1.53 (0.93) 4.29 
ABRArbor Realty Trust(0.30)11 per month 0.00 (0.24) 3.39 (4.81) 14.04 
SLGSL Green Realty 0.28 9 per month 0.00 (0.14) 2.57 (3.23) 10.73 
OUTOutfront Media(0.02)9 per month 0.88  0.17  3.65 (2.34) 16.82 
PSAPublic Storage 11.50 10 per month 0.00 (0.14) 2.27 (2.17) 6.57 
MACMacerich Company(0.03)9 per month 1.66 (0) 2.43 (2.31) 7.29 

Other Forecasting Options for EPR Properties

For every potential investor in EPR, whether a beginner or expert, EPR Properties' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EPR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EPR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EPR Properties' price trends.

EPR Properties Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EPR Properties stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EPR Properties could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EPR Properties by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

EPR Properties Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EPR Properties stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EPR Properties shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EPR Properties stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EPR Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

EPR Properties Risk Indicators

The analysis of EPR Properties' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EPR Properties' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting epr stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for EPR Properties

The number of cover stories for EPR Properties depends on current market conditions and EPR Properties' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that EPR Properties is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about EPR Properties' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

EPR Properties Short Properties

EPR Properties' future price predictability will typically decrease when EPR Properties' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of EPR Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential EPR Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. EPR Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding76.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments22.1 M

Additional Tools for EPR Stock Analysis

When running EPR Properties' price analysis, check to measure EPR Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy EPR Properties is operating at the current time. Most of EPR Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of EPR Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move EPR Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of EPR Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.