Essential Properties Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EPRT Stock | USD 30.36 0.31 1.03% |
Essential Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Essential Properties' share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Essential Properties, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.198 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3218 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.2745 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3588 | Wall Street Target Price 36 |
Using Essential Properties hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Essential Properties Realty from the perspective of Essential Properties response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Essential Properties using Essential Properties' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Essential using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Essential Properties' stock price.
Essential Properties Short Interest
An investor who is long Essential Properties may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Essential Properties and may potentially protect profits, hedge Essential Properties with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 30.9351 | Short Percent 0.0747 | Short Ratio 5.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.2 M | 50 Day MA 30.5058 |
Essential Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Essential Properties Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 30.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.82.Essential Properties Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Essential Properties' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Essential. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Essential can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Essential Properties Realty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Essential Properties' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Essential Properties.
Essential Properties Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
Essential Properties' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Essential Properties Realty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Essential Properties' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Essential Properties stock will not fluctuate a lot when Essential Properties' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Essential Properties Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 30.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.82. Essential Properties after-hype prediction price | USD 29.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Essential | Build AI portfolio with Essential Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Essential contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Essential Properties Realty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Essential Properties trading at USD 30.36, that is roughly USD 0.0114 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Essential Properties' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Essential Properties Realty options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Essential Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Essential Properties' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Essential Properties' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Essential Properties stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Essential Properties' open interest, investors have to compare it to Essential Properties' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Essential Properties is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Essential. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Essential Properties Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Essential price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Essential using various technical indicators. When you analyze Essential charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Essential Properties Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Essential Properties Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 30.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Essential Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Essential Properties' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Essential Properties Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Essential Properties | Essential Properties Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Essential Properties Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Essential Properties' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Essential Properties' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.34 and 31.38, respectively. We have considered Essential Properties' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Essential Properties stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Essential Properties stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7421 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0095 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.243 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.82 |
Predictive Modules for Essential Properties
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essential Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Essential Properties After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Essential Properties at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Essential Properties or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Essential Properties, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Essential Properties Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Essential Properties' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Essential Properties' historical news coverage. Essential Properties' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.50 and 30.48, respectively. We have considered Essential Properties' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Essential Properties is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Essential Properties is based on 3 months time horizon.
Essential Properties Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Essential Properties is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Essential Properties backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Essential Properties, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.36 | 29.49 | 0.00 |
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Essential Properties Hype Timeline
Essential Properties is currently traded for 30.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Essential is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Essential Properties is about 761.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.37. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.52. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Essential Properties has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.88. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Essential Properties to cross-verify your projections.Essential Properties Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Essential Properties' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Essential Properties' future price movements. Getting to know how Essential Properties' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Essential Properties may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRNO | Terreno Realty | (0.14) | 12 per month | 1.29 | (0.02) | 2.22 | (2.35) | 5.89 | |
| RITM | Rithm Capital Corp | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.86 | 0.10 | 2.15 | (1.62) | 5.69 | |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties | 1.08 | 6 per month | 1.00 | 0.05 | 2.41 | (1.67) | 6.96 | |
| REXR | Rexford Industrial Realty | 0.25 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.30 | (1.96) | 6.35 | |
| GNL | Global Net Lease | 0.21 | 10 per month | 0.71 | 0.22 | 2.49 | (1.43) | 8.05 | |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT | (0.04) | 27 per month | 1.27 | 0.03 | 1.64 | (2.27) | 5.38 | |
| FR | First Industrial Realty | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.01 | 1.93 | (1.43) | 4.65 | |
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust | (0.07) | 24 per month | 0.89 | (0.05) | 1.75 | (1.44) | 4.49 | |
| STAG | STAG Industrial | 0.06 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.27 | (1.35) | 4.09 | |
| BPYPO | Brookfield Property Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | (0.02) | 1.36 | (1.72) | 5.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Essential Properties
For every potential investor in Essential, whether a beginner or expert, Essential Properties' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Essential Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Essential. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Essential Properties' price trends.Essential Properties Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Essential Properties stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Essential Properties could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Essential Properties by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Essential Properties Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Essential Properties stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Essential Properties shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Essential Properties stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Essential Properties Realty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Essential Properties Risk Indicators
The analysis of Essential Properties' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Essential Properties' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting essential stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8157 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Variance | 1.04 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Essential Properties
The number of cover stories for Essential Properties depends on current market conditions and Essential Properties' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Essential Properties is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Essential Properties' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Essential Properties Short Properties
Essential Properties' future price predictability will typically decrease when Essential Properties' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Essential Properties Realty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Essential Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Essential Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 177.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40.7 M |
Additional Tools for Essential Stock Analysis
When running Essential Properties' price analysis, check to measure Essential Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Essential Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Essential Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Essential Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Essential Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Essential Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.