Enstar Group Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ESGRDelisted Stock | USD 337.91 1.55 0.46% |
Enstar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Enstar Group's share price is at 55 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Enstar Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Enstar Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Enstar Group Limited from the perspective of Enstar Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Enstar Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 337.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.09. Enstar Group after-hype prediction price | USD 337.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Enstar |
Enstar Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Enstar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Enstar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Enstar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Enstar Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Enstar Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 337.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Enstar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Enstar Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Enstar Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Enstar Group | Enstar Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Enstar Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Enstar Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3978 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.163 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4682 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.0924 |
Predictive Modules for Enstar Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Enstar Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Enstar Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Enstar Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Enstar Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Enstar Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Enstar Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Enstar Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Enstar Group's historical news coverage. Enstar Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 337.91 and 337.91, respectively. We have considered Enstar Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Enstar Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Enstar Group Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Enstar Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Enstar Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Enstar Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Enstar Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
337.91 | 337.91 | 0.00 |
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Enstar Group Hype Timeline
Enstar Group Limited is currently traded for 337.91. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Enstar is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Enstar Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 337.91. About 82.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.88. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Enstar Group Limited has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.76. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 31.19. The firm last dividend was issued on the 31st of January 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.Enstar Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Enstar Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Enstar Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Enstar Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Enstar Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ATH | Athene Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ATCO | Atlas Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FLG | Flagstar Financial | 0.19 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.13 | 4.62 | (2.36) | 10.95 | |
| OBDC | Blue Owl Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.93 | (2.94) | 8.33 | |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial | (1.92) | 15 per month | 2.05 | (0.04) | 2.28 | (2.20) | 11.78 | |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares | (0.25) | 7 per month | 0.96 | 0.16 | 3.79 | (1.86) | 9.06 | |
| AEL | American Equity Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SVFC | SVF Investment Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Enstar Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Enstar Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Enstar Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Enstar Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Enstar Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Enstar Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Enstar Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Enstar Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Enstar Group Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Enstar Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Enstar Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Enstar Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting enstar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.148 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0683 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2012 | |||
| Variance | 0.0405 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0336 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0047 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Enstar Group
The number of cover stories for Enstar Group depends on current market conditions and Enstar Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Enstar Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Enstar Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Enstar Group Short Properties
Enstar Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Enstar Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Enstar Group Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Enstar Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Enstar Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 36 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6 B |
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Other Consideration for investing in Enstar Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Enstar Group Limited check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Enstar Group's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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