Establishment Labs Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ESTA Stock | USD 45.55 2.47 5.73% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Establishment Labs Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 45.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.51. Establishment Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Establishment Labs stock prices and determine the direction of Establishment Labs Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Establishment Labs' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Establishment |
Establishment Labs Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Establishment Labs' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 54.6 M | Current Value 39.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 27.7 M |
Establishment Labs Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Establishment Labs Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 45.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.85, mean absolute percentage error of 5.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Establishment Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Establishment Labs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Establishment Labs Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Establishment Labs | Establishment Labs Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Establishment Labs Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Establishment Labs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Establishment Labs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.44 and 49.69, respectively. We have considered Establishment Labs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Establishment Labs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Establishment Labs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.6684 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.847 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0432 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 114.512 |
Predictive Modules for Establishment Labs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Establishment Labs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Establishment Labs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Establishment Labs
For every potential investor in Establishment, whether a beginner or expert, Establishment Labs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Establishment Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Establishment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Establishment Labs' price trends.Establishment Labs Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Establishment Labs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Establishment Labs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Establishment Labs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Establishment Labs Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Establishment Labs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Establishment Labs' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Establishment Labs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Establishment Labs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Establishment Labs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Establishment Labs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Establishment Labs Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 34221.94 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.012295 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 44.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.47 |
Establishment Labs Risk Indicators
The analysis of Establishment Labs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Establishment Labs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting establishment stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.51 | |||
| Variance | 20.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Establishment Labs offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Establishment Labs' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Establishment Labs Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Establishment Labs Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Establishment Labs to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Establishment Labs. If investors know Establishment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Establishment Labs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.59) | Revenue Per Share 5.58 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.045 | Return On Assets (0.12) | Return On Equity (2.23) |
The market value of Establishment Labs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Establishment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Establishment Labs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Establishment Labs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Establishment Labs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Establishment Labs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Establishment Labs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Establishment Labs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Establishment Labs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.