Evotec SE Stock Forward View
| EVO Stock | USD 3.42 0.23 6.30% |
Evotec Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Evotec SE's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Evotec SE's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Evotec SE fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Evotec SE's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Evotec SE, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0233 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.66) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.36) | Wall Street Target Price 5.6398 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.17) |
Using Evotec SE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evotec SE ADR from the perspective of Evotec SE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Evotec Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evotec SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 3.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93.Evotec SE ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Evotec SE's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Evotec. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Evotec can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Evotec SE ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Evotec SE's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Evotec SE.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evotec SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 3.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93. Evotec SE after-hype prediction price | USD 3.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evotec SE to cross-verify your projections. Evotec SE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evotec price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evotec using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evotec charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Evotec SE Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Evotec SE's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2003-12-31 | Previous Quarter 314.4 M | Current Value 174 M | Quarterly Volatility 207.4 M |
Evotec SE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evotec SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 3.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evotec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evotec SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evotec SE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evotec SE | Evotec SE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Evotec SE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evotec SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evotec SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.10 and 6.28, respectively. We have considered Evotec SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evotec SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evotec SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1053 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1135 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0344 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.9256 |
Predictive Modules for Evotec SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evotec SE ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evotec SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Evotec SE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evotec SE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evotec SE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evotec SE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evotec SE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evotec SE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evotec SE's historical news coverage. Evotec SE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.40 and 6.40, respectively. We have considered Evotec SE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evotec SE is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evotec SE ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evotec SE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evotec SE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evotec SE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evotec SE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 3.09 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.42 | 3.40 | 0.58 |
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Evotec SE Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Evotec SE ADR is traded for 3.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Evotec is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.58%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Evotec SE is about 1287.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.40. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.4. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Evotec SE ADR has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 444.0. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.52. The firm last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 2018. Evotec SE had 4:1 split on the 20th of October 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evotec SE to cross-verify your projections.Evotec SE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evotec SE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evotec SE's future price movements. Getting to know how Evotec SE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evotec SE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TLRY | Tilray Inc | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.64 | (8.43) | 54.17 | |
| AZTA | Azenta Inc | (0.07) | 10 per month | 1.98 | 0.1 | 3.81 | (3.24) | 22.17 | |
| NVCR | Novocure | 0.17 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.95 | (4.90) | 14.06 | |
| SYRE | Spyre Therapeutics | (0.51) | 9 per month | 2.51 | 0.11 | 7.15 | (4.47) | 20.03 | |
| TDOC | Teladoc | (0.33) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.70 | (5.44) | 15.93 | |
| HROW | Harrow Health | 0.23 | 7 per month | 2.93 | 0.03 | 7.65 | (4.79) | 21.82 | |
| PHVS | Pharvaris BV | (1.45) | 7 per month | 3.27 | 0.07 | 6.58 | (6.01) | 27.81 | |
| ALVO | Alvotech | (0.15) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.89 | (6.38) | 34.63 | |
| SDGR | Schrodinger | (0.12) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 3.86 | (4.69) | 15.22 | |
| PCRX | Pacira BioSciences | (0.15) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.50 | (6.29) | 14.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evotec SE
For every potential investor in Evotec, whether a beginner or expert, Evotec SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evotec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evotec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evotec SE's price trends.Evotec SE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evotec SE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evotec SE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evotec SE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evotec SE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evotec SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evotec SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evotec SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evotec SE ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Evotec SE Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evotec SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evotec SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evotec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.48 | |||
| Variance | 12.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evotec SE
The number of cover stories for Evotec SE depends on current market conditions and Evotec SE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evotec SE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evotec SE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Evotec SE Short Properties
Evotec SE's future price predictability will typically decrease when Evotec SE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evotec SE ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evotec SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evotec SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 354.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 396.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evotec SE to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Evotec diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evotec SE. Projected growth potential of Evotec fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Evotec SE data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.52) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Evotec SE ADR requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Evotec's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Evotec SE's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Evotec SE's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Evotec SE's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Evotec SE should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Evotec SE's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.