Evoke Pharma Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| EVOK Stock | USD 25.70 0.30 1.15% |
Evoke Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Evoke Pharma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Evoke Pharma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Evoke Pharma fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Evoke Pharma's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.30) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.88) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.68 | Wall Street Target Price 18 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.45) |
Using Evoke Pharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evoke Pharma from the perspective of Evoke Pharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Evoke Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 29.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.34. Evoke Pharma after-hype prediction price | USD 24.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evoke Pharma to cross-verify your projections. Evoke Pharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evoke price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evoke using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evoke charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Evoke Pharma Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Evoke Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 29.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23, mean absolute percentage error of 7.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evoke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evoke Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evoke Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evoke Pharma | Evoke Pharma Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Evoke Pharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evoke Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evoke Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.62 and 45.36, respectively. We have considered Evoke Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evoke Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evoke Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.0006 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2314 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1333 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 138.344 |
Predictive Modules for Evoke Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evoke Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evoke Pharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evoke Pharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evoke Pharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evoke Pharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evoke Pharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evoke Pharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evoke Pharma's historical news coverage. Evoke Pharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.07 and 40.81, respectively. We have considered Evoke Pharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evoke Pharma is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evoke Pharma is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evoke Pharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evoke Pharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evoke Pharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evoke Pharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.18 | 15.87 | 0.76 | 0.39 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.70 | 24.94 | 2.96 |
|
Evoke Pharma Hype Timeline
Evoke Pharma is currently traded for 25.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.76, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.39. Evoke is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.96%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 2.18%. The volatility of related hype on Evoke Pharma is about 8816.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.09. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.38. Evoke Pharma had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:12 split on the 1st of August 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evoke Pharma to cross-verify your projections.Evoke Pharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evoke Pharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evoke Pharma's future price movements. Getting to know how Evoke Pharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evoke Pharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YCBD | cbdMD Inc | 0.01 | 6 per month | 7.74 | 0.06 | 21.17 | (14.98) | 112.24 | |
| BFRI | Biofrontera | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.76 | (7.59) | 34.13 | |
| SBFM | Sunshine Biopharma | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.35 | (5.37) | 13.93 | |
| SNOA | Sonoma Pharmaceuticals | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.03 | (4.37) | 19.00 | |
| ADIL | Adial Pharmaceuticals | (0.22) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 5.70 | (8.24) | 34.48 | |
| MHUA | Meihua International Medical | 2.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 27.69 | (25.45) | 60.20 | |
| NRSN | Neurosense Therapeutics | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 12.82 | (7.48) | 34.62 | |
| SSKN | STRATA Skin Sciences | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 7.35 | (7.30) | 18.95 | |
| BMRA | Biomerica | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.12 | (5.21) | 18.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evoke Pharma
For every potential investor in Evoke, whether a beginner or expert, Evoke Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evoke Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evoke. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evoke Pharma's price trends.Evoke Pharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evoke Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evoke Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evoke Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evoke Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evoke Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evoke Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evoke Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evoke Pharma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 38635.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.29) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.30) |
Evoke Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evoke Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evoke Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evoke stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 8.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 22.13 | |||
| Variance | 489.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (9.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evoke Pharma
The number of cover stories for Evoke Pharma depends on current market conditions and Evoke Pharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evoke Pharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evoke Pharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Evoke Pharma Short Properties
Evoke Pharma's future price predictability will typically decrease when Evoke Pharma's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evoke Pharma often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evoke Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evoke Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evoke Pharma to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Evoke Stock please use our How to buy in Evoke Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evoke Pharma. Projected growth potential of Evoke fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Evoke Pharma assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (1.38) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.614 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Evoke Pharma using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Evoke Pharma's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Evoke Pharma's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Evoke Pharma's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Evoke Pharma should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Evoke Pharma's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.