Exmar NV Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| EXM Stock | EUR 10.30 0.02 0.19% |
Exmar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Exmar NV's share price is above 70 as of today suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Exmar, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Exmar NV hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exmar NV from the perspective of Exmar NV response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Exmar NV on the next trading day is expected to be 10.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.01. Exmar NV after-hype prediction price | EUR 10.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Exmar |
Exmar NV Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exmar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exmar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exmar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Exmar NV Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Exmar NV on the next trading day is expected to be 10.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exmar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exmar NV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Exmar NV Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Exmar NV | Exmar NV Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Exmar NV Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Exmar NV's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exmar NV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.96 and 11.04, respectively. We have considered Exmar NV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exmar NV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exmar NV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2264 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1148 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.0053 |
Predictive Modules for Exmar NV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exmar NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Exmar NV After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exmar NV at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exmar NV or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exmar NV, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exmar NV Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exmar NV's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exmar NV's historical news coverage. Exmar NV's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.25 and 11.35, respectively. We have considered Exmar NV's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exmar NV is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exmar NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exmar NV Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exmar NV is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exmar NV backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exmar NV, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.30 | 10.30 | 0.00 |
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Exmar NV Hype Timeline
Exmar NV is currently traded for 10.30on Euronext Brussels of Belgium. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Exmar is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Exmar NV is about 6240.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.30. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.91. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Exmar NV last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2022. The entity had 100:139 split on the 21st of August 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exmar NV to cross-verify your projections.Exmar NV Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exmar NV's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exmar NV's future price movements. Getting to know how Exmar NV's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exmar NV may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FLUX | Fluxys Belgium | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.03 | 2.48 | (1.84) | 6.38 | |
| VPK | Koninklijke Vopak NV | (0.10) | 2 per month | 0.40 | 0.19 | 1.52 | (0.92) | 7.65 | |
| EVS | EVS Broadcast Equipment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.80 | (2.59) | 8.62 | |
| BEKB | NV Bekaert SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.83 | 0.14 | 2.81 | (1.39) | 5.50 | |
| TESB | Tessenderlo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | (0.06) | 2.31 | (1.84) | 5.58 | |
| MELE | Melexis NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.27 | 0.06 | 4.44 | (3.74) | 16.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Exmar NV
For every potential investor in Exmar, whether a beginner or expert, Exmar NV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exmar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exmar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exmar NV's price trends.Exmar NV Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Exmar NV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Exmar NV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Exmar NV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Exmar NV Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Exmar NV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Exmar NV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Exmar NV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Exmar NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Exmar NV Risk Indicators
The analysis of Exmar NV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exmar NV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exmar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7368 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9604 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Exmar NV
The number of cover stories for Exmar NV depends on current market conditions and Exmar NV's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exmar NV is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exmar NV's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Exmar NV Short Properties
Exmar NV's future price predictability will typically decrease when Exmar NV's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exmar NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exmar NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exmar NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 73 M |
Additional Tools for Exmar Stock Analysis
When running Exmar NV's price analysis, check to measure Exmar NV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exmar NV is operating at the current time. Most of Exmar NV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exmar NV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exmar NV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exmar NV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.