Exodus Movement Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| EXOD Stock | USD 9.42 1.28 11.96% |
Exodus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Exodus Movement stock prices and determine the direction of Exodus Movement's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Exodus Movement's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Exodus Movement's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 19.237 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.325 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.26 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.01 | Wall Street Target Price 32.6667 |
Using Exodus Movement hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exodus Movement from the perspective of Exodus Movement response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Exodus Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Exodus Movement on the next trading day is expected to be 9.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.23.Exodus Movement Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Exodus Movement's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Exodus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Exodus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Exodus Movement. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Exodus Movement's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Exodus Movement.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Exodus Movement on the next trading day is expected to be 9.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.23. Exodus Movement after-hype prediction price | USD 9.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exodus Movement to cross-verify your projections. Exodus Movement Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exodus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exodus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exodus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Exodus Movement Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Exodus Movement on the next trading day is expected to be 9.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exodus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exodus Movement's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Exodus Movement Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Exodus Movement | Exodus Movement Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Exodus Movement Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Exodus Movement's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exodus Movement's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.04 and 15.05, respectively. We have considered Exodus Movement's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exodus Movement stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exodus Movement stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1332 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7038 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0464 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.2257 |
Predictive Modules for Exodus Movement
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exodus Movement. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Exodus Movement After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exodus Movement at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exodus Movement or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exodus Movement, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exodus Movement Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exodus Movement's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exodus Movement's historical news coverage. Exodus Movement's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.53 and 15.45, respectively. We have considered Exodus Movement's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exodus Movement is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exodus Movement is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exodus Movement Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exodus Movement is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exodus Movement backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exodus Movement, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.22 | 6.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.42 | 9.49 | 0.74 |
|
Exodus Movement Hype Timeline
Exodus Movement is currently traded for 9.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Exodus is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.49 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.74%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.22%. The volatility of related hype on Exodus Movement is about 6315.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.54. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 117.52 M. Net Income was 112.96 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 123.15 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exodus Movement to cross-verify your projections.Exodus Movement Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exodus Movement's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exodus Movement's future price movements. Getting to know how Exodus Movement's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exodus Movement may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IIIV | i3 Verticals | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 2.64 | (5.00) | 11.63 | |
| OWLS | OBOOK Holdings Class | 0.37 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 10.05 | (7.94) | 30.05 | |
| CINT | CiT Inc | (0.04) | 9 per month | 2.93 | 0 | 5.51 | (5.14) | 12.99 | |
| IBTA | Ibotta | 0.25 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.14 | (5.77) | 33.30 | |
| CCSI | Consensus Cloud Solutions | (0.39) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.55 | (5.06) | 19.47 | |
| ARQQ | Arqit Quantum | 0.71 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 7.11 | (10.64) | 22.37 | |
| RSKD | Riskified | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.73 | (2.91) | 13.98 | |
| CGNT | Cognyte Software | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.70 | (5.91) | 15.99 | |
| CTLP | Cantaloupe | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.39 | (0.06) | 1.14 | (0.66) | 2.93 | |
| OSPN | OneSpan | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.47 | (4.28) | 14.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Exodus Movement
For every potential investor in Exodus, whether a beginner or expert, Exodus Movement's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exodus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exodus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exodus Movement's price trends.Exodus Movement Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Exodus Movement stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Exodus Movement could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Exodus Movement by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Exodus Movement Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Exodus Movement stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Exodus Movement shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Exodus Movement stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Exodus Movement entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 16729.63 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.88 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.19) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.28) |
Exodus Movement Risk Indicators
The analysis of Exodus Movement's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exodus Movement's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exodus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.88 | |||
| Variance | 34.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Exodus Movement
The number of cover stories for Exodus Movement depends on current market conditions and Exodus Movement's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exodus Movement is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exodus Movement's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Exodus Movement Short Properties
Exodus Movement's future price predictability will typically decrease when Exodus Movement's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exodus Movement often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exodus Movement's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exodus Movement's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 68.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exodus Movement to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Exodus Stock refer to our How to Trade Exodus Stock guide.You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Will Application Software sector continue expanding? Could Exodus diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exodus Movement. Projected growth potential of Exodus fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Exodus Movement data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 19.237 | Earnings Share 3.45 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.508 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Exodus Movement using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Exodus Movement's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Exodus Movement's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Exodus Movement's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Exodus Movement should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Exodus Movement's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.