EZGO Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EZGO Stock | USD 1.94 0.05 2.51% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of EZGO Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.13. EZGO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although EZGO Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of EZGO Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of EZGO Technologies fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of EZGO Technologies' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.771 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.219 |
Using EZGO Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of EZGO Technologies from the perspective of EZGO Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of EZGO Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.13. EZGO Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 2.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EZGO Technologies to cross-verify your projections. EZGO Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine EZGO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for EZGO using various technical indicators. When you analyze EZGO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
EZGO Technologies Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the EZGO Technologies' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2018-12-31 | Previous Quarter 372.6 K | Current Value 517.3 K | Quarterly Volatility 4.5 M |
EZGO Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of EZGO Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EZGO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EZGO Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
EZGO Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EZGO Technologies | EZGO Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
EZGO Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting EZGO Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EZGO Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 12.04, respectively. We have considered EZGO Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EZGO Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EZGO Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5599 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1988 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.078 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.1269 |
Predictive Modules for EZGO Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EZGO Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.EZGO Technologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of EZGO Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in EZGO Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of EZGO Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
EZGO Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting EZGO Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on EZGO Technologies' historical news coverage. EZGO Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 11.78, respectively. We have considered EZGO Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
EZGO Technologies is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of EZGO Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
EZGO Technologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as EZGO Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading EZGO Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with EZGO Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.72 | 9.72 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.94 | 2.06 | 6.19 |
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EZGO Technologies Hype Timeline
EZGO Technologies is currently traded for 1.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. EZGO is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 2.06 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 6.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.72%. The volatility of related hype on EZGO Technologies is about 4580.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.79. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of (0.42) %, which may suggest that it does not properly executes on its current pricing strategies or is unable to control all of the operational costs. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of (0.07) %, which suggests for every $100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating loss of $0.07. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EZGO Technologies to cross-verify your projections.EZGO Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to EZGO Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict EZGO Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how EZGO Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how EZGO Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VMAR | Vision Marine Technologies | (0.67) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 9.84 | (20.35) | 208.75 | |
| ZOOZW | ZOOZ Power Ltd | (0) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 20.00 | (20.26) | 53.33 | |
| CTHR | Charles Colvard | (0.67) | 19 per month | 27.49 | 0.17 | 150.00 | (61.15) | 597.51 | |
| BQ | Boqii Holding Limited | 0.29 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 20.00 | (13.19) | 190.16 | |
| JFBR | Jeffs Brands | (0.67) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 13.75 | (15.53) | 166.56 | |
| AREB | American Rebel Holdings | (0.67) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 13.98 | (16.92) | 116.99 | |
| YYAI | Connexa Sports Technologies | 0.12 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 20.19 | (19.00) | 184.13 | |
| BINI | Bollinger Innovations | (0.01) | 2 per month | 7.16 | 0.02 | 18.18 | (14.29) | 75.32 | |
| SOND | Sonder Holdings | 0.12 | 2 per month | 24.50 | 0.10 | 67.74 | (61.54) | 2,000 | |
| ISPO | Inspirato | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.23 | 0.11 | 6.32 | (3.14) | 47.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for EZGO Technologies
For every potential investor in EZGO, whether a beginner or expert, EZGO Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EZGO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EZGO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EZGO Technologies' price trends.EZGO Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EZGO Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EZGO Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EZGO Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EZGO Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EZGO Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EZGO Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EZGO Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EZGO Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
EZGO Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of EZGO Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EZGO Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ezgo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.45 | |||
| Variance | 89.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for EZGO Technologies
The number of cover stories for EZGO Technologies depends on current market conditions and EZGO Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that EZGO Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about EZGO Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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EZGO Technologies Short Properties
EZGO Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when EZGO Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of EZGO Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential EZGO Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. EZGO Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9054.00 | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 517.3 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EZGO Technologies to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in EZGO Stock, please use our How to Invest in EZGO Technologies guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of EZGO Technologies. If investors know EZGO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about EZGO Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.771 | Earnings Share (990.75) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.219 | Return On Assets |
The market value of EZGO Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of EZGO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of EZGO Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is EZGO Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because EZGO Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect EZGO Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between EZGO Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if EZGO Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, EZGO Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.