EasyJet PLC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EZJ Stock   571.60  1.80  0.31%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of EasyJet PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 551.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 424.47. EasyJet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast EasyJet PLC stock prices and determine the direction of EasyJet PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of EasyJet PLC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, EasyJet PLC's Short and Long Term Debt Total is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Other Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 2.3 B, whereas Cash is forecasted to decline to about 1.1 B.
A naive forecasting model for EasyJet PLC is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of EasyJet PLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

EasyJet PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of EasyJet PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 551.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.96, mean absolute percentage error of 79.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 424.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EasyJet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EasyJet PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

EasyJet PLC Stock Forecast Pattern

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EasyJet PLC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting EasyJet PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EasyJet PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 550.01 and 553.46, respectively. We have considered EasyJet PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
571.60
550.01
Downside
551.74
Expected Value
553.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EasyJet PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EasyJet PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4849
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.9585
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0132
SAESum of the absolute errors424.4715
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of EasyJet PLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict EasyJet PLC. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for EasyJet PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EasyJet PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
569.61571.33573.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
462.34464.06628.76
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.120.150.17
Details

Other Forecasting Options for EasyJet PLC

For every potential investor in EasyJet, whether a beginner or expert, EasyJet PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EasyJet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EasyJet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EasyJet PLC's price trends.

EasyJet PLC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EasyJet PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EasyJet PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EasyJet PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

EasyJet PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of EasyJet PLC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of EasyJet PLC's current price.

EasyJet PLC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EasyJet PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EasyJet PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EasyJet PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EasyJet PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

EasyJet PLC Risk Indicators

The analysis of EasyJet PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EasyJet PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting easyjet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in EasyJet Stock

EasyJet PLC financial ratios help investors to determine whether EasyJet Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EasyJet with respect to the benefits of owning EasyJet PLC security.