FalconStor Software Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FALC Stock | USD 1.41 0.12 7.84% |
FalconStor Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast FalconStor Software stock prices and determine the direction of FalconStor Software's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of FalconStor Software's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of FalconStor Software's share price is approaching 48. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FalconStor Software, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using FalconStor Software hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FalconStor Software from the perspective of FalconStor Software response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FalconStor Software on the next trading day is expected to be 1.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.69. FalconStor Software after-hype prediction price | USD 1.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
FalconStor |
FalconStor Software Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FalconStor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FalconStor using various technical indicators. When you analyze FalconStor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FalconStor Software Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FalconStor Software on the next trading day is expected to be 1.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FalconStor Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FalconStor Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FalconStor Software Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FalconStor Software | FalconStor Software Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
FalconStor Software Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FalconStor Software's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FalconStor Software's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 10.79, respectively. We have considered FalconStor Software's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FalconStor Software pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FalconStor Software pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0245 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0949 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0684 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.6945 |
Predictive Modules for FalconStor Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FalconStor Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FalconStor Software After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FalconStor Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FalconStor Software or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of FalconStor Software, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FalconStor Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FalconStor Software's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FalconStor Software's historical news coverage. FalconStor Software's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 10.79, respectively. We have considered FalconStor Software's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FalconStor Software is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FalconStor Software is based on 3 months time horizon.
FalconStor Software Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FalconStor Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FalconStor Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FalconStor Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 9.38 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.41 | 1.41 | 0.00 |
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FalconStor Software Hype Timeline
FalconStor Software is currently traded for 1.41. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. FalconStor is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on FalconStor Software is about 42636.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.40. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.38. FalconStor Software last dividend was issued on the 9th of August 2019. The entity had 1:100 split on the 9th of August 2019. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FalconStor Software to cross-verify your projections.FalconStor Software Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FalconStor Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FalconStor Software's future price movements. Getting to know how FalconStor Software's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FalconStor Software may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ADCOF | Adcore Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 9.09 | (8.33) | 41.11 | |
| ZDGGF | ZOO Digital Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 69.64 | |
| AILQF | AirIQ Inc | (0.11) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.29 | |
| NBVAF | Nubeva Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.69 | (12.50) | 30.95 | |
| KWIK | KwikClick | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.64 | (6.12) | 40.05 | |
| ACWRF | Acceleware | (0.11) | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SEAC | SeaChange International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.77 | 0.06 | 7.95 | (6.00) | 120.35 | |
| MYIDF | Killi | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 9.13 | (12.01) | 41.34 | |
| KNEOF | KNeoMedia Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| APYP | AppYea Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.64 | 0.09 | 19.01 | (9.47) | 46.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for FalconStor Software
For every potential investor in FalconStor, whether a beginner or expert, FalconStor Software's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FalconStor Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FalconStor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FalconStor Software's price trends.FalconStor Software Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FalconStor Software pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FalconStor Software could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FalconStor Software by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FalconStor Software Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FalconStor Software pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FalconStor Software shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FalconStor Software pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify FalconStor Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.92 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.4 |
FalconStor Software Risk Indicators
The analysis of FalconStor Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FalconStor Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting falconstor pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.09 | |||
| Variance | 82.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 203.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 72.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FalconStor Software
The number of cover stories for FalconStor Software depends on current market conditions and FalconStor Software's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FalconStor Software is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FalconStor Software's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in FalconStor Pink Sheet
FalconStor Software financial ratios help investors to determine whether FalconStor Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FalconStor with respect to the benefits of owning FalconStor Software security.