Fam Equity-income Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average

FAMEX Fund  USD 56.36  0.48  0.84%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fam Equity Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 56.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.95. Fam Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Fam Equity-income's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Fam Equity-income's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fam Equity Income Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Fam Equity-income hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fam Equity Income Fund from the perspective of Fam Equity-income response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fam Equity Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 56.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.95.

Fam Equity-income after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 56.84  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fam Equity-income to cross-verify your projections.

Fam Equity-income Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fam price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fam using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fam charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Fam Equity-income is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Fam Equity-income Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fam Equity Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 56.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fam Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fam Equity-income's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fam Equity-income Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fam Equity-incomeFam Equity-income Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Fam Equity-income Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fam Equity-income's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fam Equity-income's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.80 and 57.40, respectively. We have considered Fam Equity-income's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
56.36
56.60
Expected Value
57.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fam Equity-income mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fam Equity-income mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9744
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0188
MADMean absolute deviation0.389
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0071
SAESum of the absolute errors22.95
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Fam Equity Income Fund price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Fam Equity-income. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Fam Equity-income

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fam Equity Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fam Equity-income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
56.0456.8457.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
55.6156.4157.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
53.8755.6257.36
Details

Fam Equity-income After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Fam Equity-income at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fam Equity-income or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Fam Equity-income, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Fam Equity-income Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Fam Equity-income's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fam Equity-income's historical news coverage. Fam Equity-income's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.04 and 57.64, respectively. We have considered Fam Equity-income's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
56.36
56.84
After-hype Price
57.64
Upside
Fam Equity-income is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fam Equity Income is based on 3 months time horizon.

Fam Equity-income Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Fam Equity-income is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fam Equity-income backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fam Equity-income, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.80
 0.00  
  0.34 
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
56.36
56.84
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Fam Equity-income Hype Timeline

Fam Equity Income is currently traded for 56.36. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.34. Fam is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fam Equity-income is about 2.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.70. The company last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fam Equity-income to cross-verify your projections.

Fam Equity-income Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Fam Equity-income's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fam Equity-income's future price movements. Getting to know how Fam Equity-income's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fam Equity-income may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VLAIXValue Line Asset 105.80 1 per month 0.29  0.04  0.77 (0.75) 13.03 
VLAAXValue Line Asset 0.00 0 per month 0.29  0.04  0.75 (0.73) 13.05 
EEMAXColumbia Emerging Markets 0.00 0 per month 0.52  0.13  1.74 (1.14) 5.47 
GCEQXGreen Century Equity 0.00 0 per month 0.95 (0.07) 1.12 (1.57) 4.05 
MAPOXMairs Power Balanced 0.00 0 per month 0.46 (0.07) 0.96 (0.59) 2.16 
HGHAXThe Hartford Healthcare 0.00 0 per month 0.39  0.11  1.91 (0.98) 3.94 
BAMPXBlackrock Moderate Prepared 0.00 0 per month 0.37 (0.17) 0.59 (0.66) 1.77 
TGCNXTcw Select Equities 115.42 1 per month 0.00 (0.18) 1.16 (1.93) 4.86 
MMDEXPraxis Growth Index 0.00 0 per month 1.14 (0.04) 1.30 (1.87) 6.62 
GWGVXAmg Gwk Smallmid 118.91 3 per month 0.83  0.08  1.73 (1.40) 4.10 

Other Forecasting Options for Fam Equity-income

For every potential investor in Fam, whether a beginner or expert, Fam Equity-income's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fam Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fam. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fam Equity-income's price trends.

Fam Equity-income Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fam Equity-income mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fam Equity-income could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fam Equity-income by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fam Equity-income Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fam Equity-income mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fam Equity-income shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fam Equity-income mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Fam Equity Income Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fam Equity-income Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fam Equity-income's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fam Equity-income's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fam mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Fam Equity-income

The number of cover stories for Fam Equity-income depends on current market conditions and Fam Equity-income's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fam Equity-income is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fam Equity-income's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Fam Mutual Fund

Fam Equity-income financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fam Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fam with respect to the benefits of owning Fam Equity-income security.
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