Computers Portfolio Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FDCPX Fund  USD 143.89  0.12  0.08%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Computers Portfolio Puters on the next trading day is expected to be 144.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.76. Computers Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Computers Portfolio's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Computers Portfolio's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Computers Portfolio Puters, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Computers Portfolio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Computers Portfolio Puters from the perspective of Computers Portfolio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Computers Portfolio Puters on the next trading day is expected to be 144.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.76.

Computers Portfolio after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 143.89  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Computers Portfolio to cross-verify your projections.

Computers Portfolio Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Computers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Computers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Computers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Computers Portfolio - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Computers Portfolio prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Computers Portfolio price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Computers Portfolio.

Computers Portfolio Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Computers Portfolio Puters on the next trading day is expected to be 144.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35, mean absolute percentage error of 3.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Computers Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Computers Portfolio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Computers Portfolio Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Computers PortfolioComputers Portfolio Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Computers Portfolio Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Computers Portfolio's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Computers Portfolio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 143.20 and 145.72, respectively. We have considered Computers Portfolio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
143.89
143.20
Downside
144.46
Expected Value
145.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Computers Portfolio mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Computers Portfolio mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4803
MADMean absolute deviation1.3519
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.01
SAESum of the absolute errors79.76
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Computers Portfolio observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Computers Portfolio Puters observations.

Predictive Modules for Computers Portfolio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Computers Portfolio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
142.63143.89145.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
140.51141.77158.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
129.68137.35145.03
Details

Computers Portfolio After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Computers Portfolio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Computers Portfolio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Computers Portfolio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Computers Portfolio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Computers Portfolio's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Computers Portfolio's historical news coverage. Computers Portfolio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 142.63 and 145.15, respectively. We have considered Computers Portfolio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
143.89
142.63
Downside
143.89
After-hype Price
145.15
Upside
Computers Portfolio is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Computers Portfolio is based on 3 months time horizon.

Computers Portfolio Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Computers Portfolio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Computers Portfolio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Computers Portfolio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
1.26
 0.00  
  0.01 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
143.89
143.89
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Computers Portfolio Hype Timeline

Computers Portfolio is currently traded for 143.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Computers is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Computers Portfolio is about 757.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 143.88. The company last dividend was issued on the 8th of April 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Computers Portfolio to cross-verify your projections.

Computers Portfolio Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Computers Portfolio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Computers Portfolio's future price movements. Getting to know how Computers Portfolio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Computers Portfolio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FBSOXIt Services Portfolio 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 1.64 (2.22) 4.77 
FDFAXConsumer Staples Portfolio 0.00 0 per month 0.61  0.01  1.25 (0.98) 3.00 
FIDSXFinancial Services Portfolio 0.08 1 per month 0.86  0  1.54 (1.62) 3.86 
FEDDXFidelity Emerging Markets(0.17)1 per month 0.18  0.19  1.03 (0.92) 2.42 
FCYIXIndustrials Portfolio Industrials(0.18)1 per month 0.64 (0.1) 1.57 (1.10) 4.14 
FHKCXFidelity China Region 0.00 0 per month 0.80  0.07  1.73 (1.55) 4.38 
DFGXDimensional Global ex(1.17)3 per month 0.00 (0.49) 0.23 (0.32) 0.74 
GPIQGoldman Sachs Nasdaq 100 0.11 4 per month 0.92 (0.03) 1.37 (1.67) 4.24 

Other Forecasting Options for Computers Portfolio

For every potential investor in Computers, whether a beginner or expert, Computers Portfolio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Computers Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Computers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Computers Portfolio's price trends.

Computers Portfolio Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Computers Portfolio mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Computers Portfolio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Computers Portfolio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Computers Portfolio Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Computers Portfolio mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Computers Portfolio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Computers Portfolio mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Computers Portfolio Puters entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Computers Portfolio Risk Indicators

The analysis of Computers Portfolio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Computers Portfolio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting computers mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Computers Portfolio

The number of cover stories for Computers Portfolio depends on current market conditions and Computers Portfolio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Computers Portfolio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Computers Portfolio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Computers Mutual Fund

Computers Portfolio financial ratios help investors to determine whether Computers Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Computers with respect to the benefits of owning Computers Portfolio security.
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