Leisure Portfolio Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FDLSX Fund | USD 17.69 0.03 0.17% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Leisure Portfolio Leisure on the next trading day is expected to be 17.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.97. Leisure Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Leisure Portfolio's share price is at 59. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Leisure Portfolio, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Leisure Portfolio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Leisure Portfolio Leisure from the perspective of Leisure Portfolio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Leisure Portfolio Leisure on the next trading day is expected to be 17.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.97. Leisure Portfolio after-hype prediction price | USD 17.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Leisure |
Leisure Portfolio Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Leisure price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Leisure using various technical indicators. When you analyze Leisure charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Leisure Portfolio Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Leisure Portfolio Leisure on the next trading day is expected to be 17.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Leisure Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Leisure Portfolio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Leisure Portfolio Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Leisure Portfolio | Leisure Portfolio Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Leisure Portfolio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Leisure Portfolio's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Leisure Portfolio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.78 and 19.70, respectively. We have considered Leisure Portfolio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Leisure Portfolio mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Leisure Portfolio mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0414 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1828 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.9672 |
Predictive Modules for Leisure Portfolio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Leisure Portfolio Leisure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Leisure Portfolio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Leisure Portfolio After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Leisure Portfolio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Leisure Portfolio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Leisure Portfolio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Leisure Portfolio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Leisure Portfolio's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Leisure Portfolio's historical news coverage. Leisure Portfolio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.75 and 19.63, respectively. We have considered Leisure Portfolio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Leisure Portfolio is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Leisure Portfolio Leisure is based on 3 months time horizon.
Leisure Portfolio Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Leisure Portfolio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Leisure Portfolio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Leisure Portfolio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.96 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.69 | 17.69 | 0.00 |
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Leisure Portfolio Hype Timeline
Leisure Portfolio Leisure is currently traded for 17.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Leisure is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Leisure Portfolio is about 12250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.69. The company last dividend was issued on the 8th of April 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Leisure Portfolio to cross-verify your projections.Leisure Portfolio Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Leisure Portfolio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Leisure Portfolio's future price movements. Getting to know how Leisure Portfolio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Leisure Portfolio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LGOV | First Trust Long | (0.44) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 0.46 | (0.64) | 1.46 | |
| EES | WisdomTree SmallCap Earnings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.68 | 0.03 | 2.11 | (1.64) | 4.61 | |
| INDY | iShares India 50 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 0.89 | (0.88) | 3.53 | |
| FDT | First Trust Developed | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.44 | 0.17 | 1.45 | (1.20) | 3.39 | |
| LONZ | PIMCO ETF Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.43) | 0.16 | (0.10) | 1.47 | |
| OSCV | Opus Small Cap | 0.26 | 6 per month | 0.51 | (0.02) | 1.50 | (0.92) | 3.35 | |
| FLHY | Franklin Liberty High | (0.03) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.39) | 0.29 | (0.25) | 0.75 | |
| PLTY | YieldMax PLTR Option | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.14 | (5.61) | 13.02 | |
| SMDV | ProShares Russell 2000 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.62 | 0.01 | 2.23 | (1.32) | 4.02 | |
| FEATX | Fidelity Advisor Emerging | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | (0) | 1.38 | (1.19) | 3.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for Leisure Portfolio
For every potential investor in Leisure, whether a beginner or expert, Leisure Portfolio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Leisure Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Leisure. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Leisure Portfolio's price trends.Leisure Portfolio Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Leisure Portfolio mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Leisure Portfolio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Leisure Portfolio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Leisure Portfolio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Leisure Portfolio mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Leisure Portfolio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Leisure Portfolio mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Leisure Portfolio Leisure entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.69 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.69 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.03 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 59.15 |
Leisure Portfolio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Leisure Portfolio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Leisure Portfolio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting leisure mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Variance | 3.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Leisure Portfolio
The number of cover stories for Leisure Portfolio depends on current market conditions and Leisure Portfolio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Leisure Portfolio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Leisure Portfolio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Other Information on Investing in Leisure Mutual Fund
Leisure Portfolio financial ratios help investors to determine whether Leisure Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Leisure with respect to the benefits of owning Leisure Portfolio security.
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