Fidus Investment Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FDUS Stock | USD 19.69 0.08 0.40% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidus Investment Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.37. Fidus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Fidus Investment's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.085 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.472 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.074 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.924 | Wall Street Target Price 22 |
Using Fidus Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fidus Investment Corp from the perspective of Fidus Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fidus Investment using Fidus Investment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fidus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fidus Investment's stock price.
Fidus Investment Implied Volatility | 0.39 |
Fidus Investment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fidus Investment Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fidus Investment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fidus Investment stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fidus Investment's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidus Investment Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.37. Fidus Investment after-hype prediction price | USD 19.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidus Investment to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fidus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fidus Investment Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Fidus Investment trading at USD 19.69, that is roughly USD 0.004799 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fidus Investment's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fidus Investment Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Fidus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fidus Investment's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fidus Investment's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fidus Investment stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fidus Investment's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fidus Investment's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fidus Investment is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fidus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fidus Investment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fidus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fidus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fidus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fidus Investment Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fidus Investment Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidus Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fidus Investment Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fidus Investment | Fidus Investment Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fidus Investment Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fidus Investment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fidus Investment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.49 and 20.91, respectively. We have considered Fidus Investment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidus Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidus Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0307 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1758 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.009 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.3722 |
Predictive Modules for Fidus Investment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidus Investment Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidus Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidus Investment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fidus Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fidus Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fidus Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fidus Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fidus Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fidus Investment's historical news coverage. Fidus Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.48 and 20.90, respectively. We have considered Fidus Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fidus Investment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fidus Investment Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fidus Investment Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fidus Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fidus Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fidus Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.69 | 19.69 | 0.00 |
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Fidus Investment Hype Timeline
Fidus Investment Corp is currently traded for 19.69. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Fidus is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fidus Investment is about 6050.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.69. About 29.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.01. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Fidus Investment Corp last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2025. The entity had 1:1 split on the 10th of September 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidus Investment to cross-verify your projections.Fidus Investment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fidus Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fidus Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how Fidus Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fidus Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NCDL | Nuveen Churchill Direct | (0.04) | 9 per month | 1.25 | (0.05) | 2.17 | (1.80) | 6.20 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.68 | (0.10) | 1.23 | (1.22) | 3.45 | |
| MSIF | MSCome Fund | (0.02) | 4 per month | 1.66 | (0.01) | 2.91 | (2.89) | 11.44 | |
| SLRC | SLR Investment Corp | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.90 | 0.05 | 1.88 | (1.73) | 5.30 | |
| TYG | Tortoise Energy Infrastructure | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.58 | 0.06 | 1.93 | (1.08) | 4.31 | |
| BCSF | Bain Capital Specialty | (0.09) | 18 per month | 1.27 | (0.03) | 1.93 | (1.87) | 6.32 | |
| VINP | Vinci Partners Investments | 0.30 | 6 per month | 1.06 | 0.1 | 2.68 | (2.13) | 5.36 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | 0.21 | 9 per month | 1.24 | 0.01 | 2.23 | (2.09) | 5.52 | |
| PNNT | PennantPark Investment | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.16 | (2.42) | 7.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fidus Investment
For every potential investor in Fidus, whether a beginner or expert, Fidus Investment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fidus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fidus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fidus Investment's price trends.Fidus Investment Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fidus Investment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fidus Investment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fidus Investment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fidus Investment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fidus Investment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fidus Investment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fidus Investment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fidus Investment Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.69 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.69 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) |
Fidus Investment Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fidus Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fidus Investment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fidus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8588 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.75 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fidus Investment
The number of cover stories for Fidus Investment depends on current market conditions and Fidus Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fidus Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fidus Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fidus Investment Short Properties
Fidus Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fidus Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fidus Investment Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fidus Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fidus Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 57.2 M |
Additional Tools for Fidus Stock Analysis
When running Fidus Investment's price analysis, check to measure Fidus Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fidus Investment is operating at the current time. Most of Fidus Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fidus Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fidus Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fidus Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.