FedEx Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FDX Stock | EUR 264.15 2.20 0.84% |
FedEx Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FedEx's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of FedEx's stock price is roughly 60. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 30th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling FedEx, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using FedEx hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FedEx from the perspective of FedEx response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FedEx on the next trading day is expected to be 264.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 189.37. FedEx after-hype prediction price | EUR 264.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
FedEx |
FedEx Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FedEx price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FedEx using various technical indicators. When you analyze FedEx charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FedEx Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FedEx on the next trading day is expected to be 264.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.10, mean absolute percentage error of 15.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 189.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FedEx Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FedEx's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FedEx Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FedEx | FedEx Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FedEx Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FedEx's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FedEx's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 262.42 and 265.67, respectively. We have considered FedEx's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FedEx stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FedEx stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8304 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.9869 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1044 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 189.3714 |
Predictive Modules for FedEx
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FedEx. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FedEx After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FedEx at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FedEx or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FedEx, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FedEx Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FedEx's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FedEx's historical news coverage. FedEx's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 262.54 and 265.76, respectively. We have considered FedEx's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FedEx is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FedEx is based on 3 months time horizon.
FedEx Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FedEx is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FedEx backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FedEx, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
264.15 | 264.15 | 0.00 |
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FedEx Hype Timeline
FedEx is currently traded for 264.15on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. FedEx is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on FedEx is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 264.15. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.77. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FedEx has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.21. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.03. The firm last dividend was issued on the 10th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FedEx to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in FedEx Stock please use our How to Invest in FedEx guide.FedEx Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FedEx's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FedEx's future price movements. Getting to know how FedEx's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FedEx may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MEY | Meritage Homes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.91 | (3.45) | 11.52 | |
| WN6 | CARSALESCOM | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.96 | (2.59) | 5.70 | |
| 4T0 | Tradeweb Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.12 | (2.78) | 6.56 | |
| GOKA | Office Properties Income | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BE4A | Beazer Homes USA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.85 | (3.81) | 12.85 | |
| FR7 | Fast Retailing Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.09 | (2.26) | 8.31 | |
| TT8 | The Trade Desk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 3.71 | (6.01) | 14.18 | |
| BE4A | BEAZER HOMES USA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.99 | (0.0002) | 5.20 | (2.70) | 13.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for FedEx
For every potential investor in FedEx, whether a beginner or expert, FedEx's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FedEx Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FedEx. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FedEx's price trends.FedEx Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FedEx stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FedEx could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FedEx by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FedEx Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FedEx stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FedEx shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FedEx stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FedEx entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FedEx Risk Indicators
The analysis of FedEx's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FedEx's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fedex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FedEx
The number of cover stories for FedEx depends on current market conditions and FedEx's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FedEx is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FedEx's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in FedEx Stock
When determining whether FedEx offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of FedEx's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Fedex Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Fedex Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FedEx to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in FedEx Stock please use our How to Invest in FedEx guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.