Frequency Electronics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

FEIM Stock  USD 52.80  1.30  2.40%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Frequency Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 52.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.41. Frequency Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Frequency Electronics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Frequency Electronics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Frequency Electronics fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Frequency Electronics' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Frequency Electronics' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Frequency Electronics and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Frequency Electronics' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Frequency Electronics, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Frequency Electronics' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.394
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.09
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.35
Wall Street Target Price
38
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.36
Using Frequency Electronics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Frequency Electronics from the perspective of Frequency Electronics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Frequency Electronics Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Frequency Electronics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Frequency. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Frequency can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Frequency Electronics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Frequency Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 52.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.41.

Frequency Electronics after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 55.89  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Frequency Electronics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Frequency Stock, please use our How to Invest in Frequency Electronics guide.

Frequency Electronics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Frequency price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Frequency using various technical indicators. When you analyze Frequency charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Frequency Electronics simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Frequency Electronics are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Frequency Electronics prices get older.

Frequency Electronics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Frequency Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 52.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 4.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Frequency Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Frequency Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Frequency Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Frequency ElectronicsFrequency Electronics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Frequency Electronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Frequency Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Frequency Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.65 and 57.95, respectively. We have considered Frequency Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
52.80
52.80
Expected Value
57.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Frequency Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Frequency Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7166
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2665
MADMean absolute deviation1.3902
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0331
SAESum of the absolute errors83.41
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Frequency Electronics forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Frequency Electronics observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Frequency Electronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Frequency Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
50.7455.8961.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
37.6142.7658.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
28.8848.7468.59
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
34.5838.0042.18
Details

Frequency Electronics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Frequency Electronics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Frequency Electronics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Frequency Electronics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Frequency Electronics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Frequency Electronics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Frequency Electronics' historical news coverage. Frequency Electronics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 50.74 and 61.04, respectively. We have considered Frequency Electronics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
52.80
55.89
After-hype Price
61.04
Upside
Frequency Electronics is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Frequency Electronics is based on 3 months time horizon.

Frequency Electronics Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Frequency Electronics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Frequency Electronics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Frequency Electronics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.71 
5.15
  3.09 
  0.05 
10 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
52.80
55.89
5.85 
118.39  
Notes

Frequency Electronics Hype Timeline

Frequency Electronics is currently traded for 52.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Frequency is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 55.89 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 118.39%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 5.85%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.71%. The volatility of related hype on Frequency Electronics is about 6866.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.75. Frequency Electronics currently holds about 17.47 M in cash with (1.43 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.88. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Frequency Electronics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Frequency Stock, please use our How to Invest in Frequency Electronics guide.

Frequency Electronics Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Frequency Electronics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Frequency Electronics' future price movements. Getting to know how Frequency Electronics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Frequency Electronics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BKTIBK Technologies(0.42)7 per month 2.91  0.10  5.07 (5.72) 20.07 
MVISMicrovision(0.02)8 per month 0.00 (0.12) 6.38 (7.45) 15.60 
TBCHTurtle Beach 0.31 9 per month 0.00 (0.08) 4.90 (5.41) 13.97 
AUDCAudioCodes(0.14)32 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.80 (3.42) 10.20 
AVNWAviat Networks(0.31)10 per month 0.00 (0.07) 3.36 (4.18) 11.53 
CNDTConduent 0.06 12 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.49 (5.34) 23.18 
RMNIRimini Street 0.02 9 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.53 (3.13) 15.81 
CRNTCeragon Networks(0.10)10 per month 2.96 (0.03) 4.23 (4.72) 15.79 
DDD3D Systems 0.01 9 per month 5.62 (0.01) 11.30 (10.58) 38.44 
TSATTelesat Corp(0.16)20 per month 0.00 (0.03) 7.30 (8.40) 33.88 

Other Forecasting Options for Frequency Electronics

For every potential investor in Frequency, whether a beginner or expert, Frequency Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Frequency Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Frequency. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Frequency Electronics' price trends.

Frequency Electronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Frequency Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Frequency Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Frequency Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Frequency Electronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Frequency Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Frequency Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Frequency Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Frequency Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Frequency Electronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Frequency Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Frequency Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting frequency stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Frequency Electronics

The number of cover stories for Frequency Electronics depends on current market conditions and Frequency Electronics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Frequency Electronics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Frequency Electronics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Frequency Electronics Short Properties

Frequency Electronics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Frequency Electronics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Frequency Electronics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Frequency Electronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Frequency Electronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding9.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.7 M
When determining whether Frequency Electronics is a strong investment it is important to analyze Frequency Electronics' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Frequency Electronics' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Frequency Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Frequency Electronics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Frequency Stock, please use our How to Invest in Frequency Electronics guide.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Frequency Electronics. If investors know Frequency will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Frequency Electronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.394
Earnings Share
2.28
Revenue Per Share
7.097
Return On Assets
0.0685
Return On Equity
0.4891
The market value of Frequency Electronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Frequency that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Frequency Electronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Frequency Electronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Frequency Electronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Frequency Electronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Frequency Electronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Frequency Electronics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Frequency Electronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.