First Guaranty Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

First Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for First Guaranty is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Guaranty Bancshares value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

First Guaranty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Guaranty Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 16.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.27.

First Guaranty Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

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First Guaranty Price Prediction

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First Guaranty Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Guaranty preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Guaranty preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First Guaranty Bancshares. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First Guaranty. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for First Guaranty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Guaranty Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 15.07 16.75 18.43 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 12.54 14.22 18.43 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 14.83 16.31 17.80 Details

First Guaranty After-Hype Price Density Analysis

First Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

First Guaranty Preferred Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

First Guaranty Hype Timeline

First Guaranty Bancshares is currently traded for 16.75. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Guaranty is about 4742.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.75. The company last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Guaranty to cross-verify your projections.

First Guaranty Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for First Guaranty

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Guaranty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Guaranty's price trends.

First Guaranty Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

First Guaranty Market Strength Events

First Guaranty Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for First Guaranty

Other Macroaxis Stories

Additional Tools for First Preferred Stock Analysis