First Interstate Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| FIBK Stock | USD 37.60 0.79 2.15% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although First Interstate's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Interstate's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Interstate fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of First Interstate's share price is at 58. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling First Interstate, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.159 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5877 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.6322 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.9385 | Wall Street Target Price 37.8571 |
Using First Interstate hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Interstate BancSystem from the perspective of First Interstate response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Interstate using First Interstate's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Interstate's stock price.
First Interstate Short Interest
An investor who is long First Interstate may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about First Interstate and may potentially protect profits, hedge First Interstate with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 31.2319 | Short Percent 0.0836 | Short Ratio 6.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.7 M | 50 Day MA 35.2746 |
First Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Interstate BancSystem on the next trading day is expected to be 38.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.40.First Interstate Ban Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to First Interstate's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Interstate BancSystem. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of First Interstate's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about First Interstate.
First Interstate Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
First Interstate's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Interstate BancSystem stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Interstate's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Interstate stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Interstate's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Interstate BancSystem on the next trading day is expected to be 38.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.40. First Interstate after-hype prediction price | USD 38.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Interstate to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Interstate BancSystem will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With First Interstate trading at USD 37.6, that is roughly USD 0.016 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Interstate's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Interstate BancSystem options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Interstate's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Interstate's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Interstate stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Interstate's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Interstate's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Interstate is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
First Interstate Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Interstate Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of First Interstate BancSystem on the next trading day is expected to be 38.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81, mean absolute percentage error of 0.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Interstate's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Interstate Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Interstate | First Interstate Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
First Interstate Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Interstate's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Interstate's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.44 and 40.19, respectively. We have considered First Interstate's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Interstate stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Interstate stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0969 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8099 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 49.4014 |
Predictive Modules for First Interstate
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Interstate Ban. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Interstate After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Interstate at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Interstate or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Interstate, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Interstate Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Interstate's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Interstate's historical news coverage. First Interstate's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.26 and 40.00, respectively. We have considered First Interstate's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Interstate is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Interstate Ban is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Interstate Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Interstate is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Interstate backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Interstate, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.87 | 0.53 | 0.12 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.60 | 38.13 | 1.41 |
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First Interstate Hype Timeline
First Interstate Ban is currently traded for 37.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.53, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. First is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 38.13 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 111.98%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 1.41%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on First Interstate is about 479.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.48. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.06 B. Net Income was 226 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.03 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Interstate to cross-verify your projections.First Interstate Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Interstate's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Interstate's future price movements. Getting to know how First Interstate's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Interstate may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RNST | Renasant | 0.56 | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.12 | 2.86 | (1.72) | 7.57 | |
| CATY | Cathay General Bancorp | (2.74) | 9 per month | 1.18 | 0.11 | 3.14 | (1.80) | 8.56 | |
| FULT | Fulton Financial | 0.49 | 9 per month | 1.10 | 0.18 | 3.01 | (1.65) | 8.73 | |
| INDB | Independent Bank | (2.22) | 4 per month | 1.00 | 0.16 | 2.97 | (1.83) | 8.01 | |
| BMA | Banco Macro SA | (0.97) | 10 per month | 1.64 | 0.08 | 6.62 | (3.17) | 10.99 | |
| ASB | Associated Banc Corp | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.11 | 3.31 | (1.59) | 8.15 | |
| FBP | First Bancorp | 0.97 | 7 per month | 1.18 | 0.14 | 2.84 | (2.17) | 9.39 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.93 | 0.20 | 3.30 | (1.77) | 7.21 | |
| WSBC | WesBanco | 0.32 | 9 per month | 1.28 | 0.17 | 2.95 | (1.68) | 9.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Interstate
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Interstate's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Interstate's price trends.First Interstate Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Interstate stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Interstate could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Interstate by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Interstate Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Interstate stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Interstate shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Interstate stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Interstate BancSystem entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Interstate Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Interstate's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Interstate's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Interstate
The number of cover stories for First Interstate depends on current market conditions and First Interstate's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Interstate is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Interstate's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Interstate to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Interstate. Market participants price First higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive First Interstate assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.159 | Dividend Share 1.88 | Earnings Share 2.94 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.344 |
First Interstate Ban's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on First's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate First Interstate's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since First Interstate's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Interstate's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Interstate is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Interstate's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.