Fidelis Insurance Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FIHL Stock | 18.63 0.05 0.27% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelis Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.01. Fidelis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Fidelis Insurance's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fidelis Insurance's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fidelis Insurance fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength indicator of Fidelis Insurance's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.411 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0072 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.9563 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.6267 | Wall Street Target Price 21.2778 |
Using Fidelis Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fidelis Insurance Holdings from the perspective of Fidelis Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Fidelis Insurance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Fidelis Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Fidelis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fidelis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fidelis Insurance Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelis Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.01.
Fidelis Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 18.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelis Insurance to cross-verify your projections. Fidelis Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fidelis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fidelis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fidelis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fidelis Insurance Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Fidelis Insurance's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 668.7 M | Current Value 635.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 203.1 M |
Fidelis Insurance Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelis Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidelis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidelis Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fidelis Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fidelis Insurance | Fidelis Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fidelis Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fidelis Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fidelis Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.32 and 19.59, respectively. We have considered Fidelis Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelis Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelis Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.622 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.242 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.0058 |
Predictive Modules for Fidelis Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelis Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fidelis Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fidelis Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fidelis Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fidelis Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fidelis Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fidelis Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fidelis Insurance's historical news coverage. Fidelis Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.52 and 19.78, respectively. We have considered Fidelis Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fidelis Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fidelis Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fidelis Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fidelis Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fidelis Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fidelis Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.13 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.63 | 18.65 | 0.11 |
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Fidelis Insurance Hype Timeline
Fidelis Insurance is currently traded for 18.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Fidelis is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.65 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Fidelis Insurance is about 924.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.63. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.42 B. Net Income was 113.3 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 126 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelis Insurance to cross-verify your projections.Fidelis Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fidelis Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fidelis Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Fidelis Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fidelis Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SPNT | Siriuspoint | (0.08) | 6 per month | 1.56 | 0.04 | 2.44 | (2.95) | 8.30 | |
| AHL | Aspen Insurance Holdings | (0.15) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.40) | 0.22 | (0.19) | 0.76 | |
| BWIN | The Baldwin Insurance | (0.25) | 10 per month | 3.06 | 0.04 | 4.87 | (5.58) | 19.10 | |
| SKWD | Skyward Specialty Insurance | 1.93 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.99 | (2.98) | 11.17 | |
| HG | Hamilton Insurance Group | (0.54) | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.07 | 2.56 | (2.26) | 12.81 | |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings | 0.03 | 12 per month | 1.08 | 0.06 | 2.45 | (1.86) | 8.69 | |
| BBT | Beacon Financial | 0.37 | 12 per month | 1.44 | 0.11 | 4.08 | (3.01) | 9.56 | |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp | (0.28) | 7 per month | 1.14 | 0.17 | 3.73 | (1.99) | 10.88 | |
| BUSE | First Busey Corp | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.03 | 2.71 | (1.89) | 6.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fidelis Insurance
For every potential investor in Fidelis, whether a beginner or expert, Fidelis Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fidelis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fidelis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fidelis Insurance's price trends.Fidelis Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fidelis Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fidelis Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fidelis Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fidelis Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fidelis Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fidelis Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fidelis Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fidelis Insurance Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3500.7 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1852 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.62 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 |
Fidelis Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fidelis Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fidelis Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fidelis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8213 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fidelis Insurance
The number of cover stories for Fidelis Insurance depends on current market conditions and Fidelis Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fidelis Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fidelis Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fidelis Insurance Short Properties
Fidelis Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fidelis Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fidelis Insurance Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fidelis Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fidelis Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 115.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelis Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fidelis Insurance. If investors know Fidelis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fidelis Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.411 | Dividend Share 0.45 | Earnings Share (0.05) | Revenue Per Share | Return On Assets |
The market value of Fidelis Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fidelis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fidelis Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fidelis Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fidelis Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fidelis Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fidelis Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fidelis Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fidelis Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.