The Baldwin Insurance Stock Price Prediction
| BWIN Stock | 25.84 0.71 2.83% |
Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2966 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.6586 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.0259 | Wall Street Target Price 33.375 |
Using Baldwin Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Baldwin Insurance from the perspective of Baldwin Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Baldwin Insurance using Baldwin Insurance's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Baldwin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Baldwin Insurance's stock price.
Baldwin Insurance Short Interest
An investor who is long Baldwin Insurance may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Baldwin Insurance and may potentially protect profits, hedge Baldwin Insurance with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 32.6682 | Short Percent 0.1075 | Short Ratio 5.23 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.4 M | 50 Day MA 25.5916 |
Baldwin Insurance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Baldwin Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Baldwin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Baldwin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The Baldwin Insurance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Baldwin Insurance's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Baldwin Insurance.
Baldwin Insurance Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
Baldwin Insurance's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Baldwin Insurance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Baldwin Insurance's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Baldwin Insurance stock will not fluctuate a lot when Baldwin Insurance's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Baldwin Insurance to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Baldwin because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Baldwin Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 25.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Baldwin contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The Baldwin Insurance will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Baldwin Insurance trading at USD 25.84, that is roughly USD 0.0129 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Baldwin Insurance's daily price movement you should consider acquiring The Baldwin Insurance options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Baldwin Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Baldwin Insurance After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Baldwin Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Baldwin Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Baldwin Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Baldwin Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Baldwin Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Baldwin Insurance's historical news coverage. Baldwin Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.81 and 28.27, respectively. We have considered Baldwin Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Baldwin Insurance is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Baldwin Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Baldwin Insurance Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Baldwin Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Baldwin Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Baldwin Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 3.24 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.84 | 25.04 | 0.16 |
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Baldwin Insurance Hype Timeline
Baldwin Insurance is currently traded for 25.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Baldwin is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 25.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Baldwin Insurance is about 591.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.96. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Baldwin Insurance was currently reported as 8.68. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.44. Baldwin Insurance had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Baldwin Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Baldwin Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Baldwin Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Baldwin Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Baldwin Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Baldwin Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BAC | Bank of America | (0.10) | 6 per month | 1.35 | (0.06) | 1.68 | (2.16) | 5.64 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | 1.34 | 7 per month | 1.09 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 2.39 | 7 per month | 2.42 | 0.19 | 6.55 | (4.82) | 18.46 | |
| KOS | Kosmos Energy | (0.01) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.27 | (5.99) | 25.11 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | 1.63 | 6 per month | 1.19 | 0.01 | 2.46 | (1.90) | 6.74 | |
| NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | (0.61) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.98 | (4.00) | 14.26 | |
| SRTOY | Sartorius Stedim Biotech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.97 | (0.01) | 2.92 | (3.28) | 14.94 | |
| KNX | Knight Transportation | (0.26) | 9 per month | 1.86 | 0.1 | 3.84 | (2.96) | 8.76 |
Baldwin Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Baldwin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Baldwin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Baldwin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Baldwin Insurance Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Baldwin Insurance stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as The Baldwin Insurance, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Baldwin Insurance based on analysis of Baldwin Insurance hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Baldwin Insurance's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Baldwin Insurance's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.07E-4 | 1.23E-4 | 1.17E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.79 | 2.06 | 2.74 |
Pair Trading with Baldwin Insurance
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Baldwin Insurance position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Baldwin Insurance will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Baldwin Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Baldwin Insurance could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Baldwin Insurance when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Baldwin Insurance - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling The Baldwin Insurance to buy it.
The correlation of Baldwin Insurance is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Baldwin Insurance moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Baldwin Insurance moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Baldwin Insurance can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Baldwin Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Insurance Brokers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Baldwin Insurance. If investors know Baldwin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Baldwin Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | Earnings Share (0.44) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Baldwin Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Baldwin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Baldwin Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Baldwin Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Baldwin Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Baldwin Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Baldwin Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Baldwin Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Baldwin Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.