Leonardo SpA Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| FINMY Stock | USD 33.25 1.23 3.57% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Leonardo SpA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 33.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.27. Leonardo Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Leonardo SpA's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Leonardo SpA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Leonardo SpA ADR from the perspective of Leonardo SpA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Leonardo SpA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 33.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.27. Leonardo SpA after-hype prediction price | USD 33.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Leonardo |
Leonardo SpA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Leonardo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Leonardo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Leonardo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Leonardo SpA Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Leonardo SpA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 33.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Leonardo Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Leonardo SpA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Leonardo SpA Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Leonardo SpA | Leonardo SpA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Leonardo SpA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Leonardo SpA's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Leonardo SpA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.00 and 35.50, respectively. We have considered Leonardo SpA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Leonardo SpA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Leonardo SpA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7281 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0884 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5712 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0193 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.275 |
Predictive Modules for Leonardo SpA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Leonardo SpA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Leonardo SpA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Leonardo SpA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Leonardo SpA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Leonardo SpA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Leonardo SpA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Leonardo SpA's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Leonardo SpA's historical news coverage. Leonardo SpA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.13 and 35.63, respectively. We have considered Leonardo SpA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Leonardo SpA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Leonardo SpA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Leonardo SpA Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Leonardo SpA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Leonardo SpA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Leonardo SpA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 2.25 | 0.13 | 12.84 | 15 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
33.25 | 33.38 | 0.39 |
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Leonardo SpA Hype Timeline
Leonardo SpA ADR is currently traded for 33.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -12.84. Leonardo is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 33.38 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is estimated to be 0.39%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Leonardo SpA is about 3.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.41. The company reported the revenue of 14.13 B. Net Income was 586 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.51 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Leonardo SpA to cross-verify your projections.Leonardo SpA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Leonardo SpA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Leonardo SpA's future price movements. Getting to know how Leonardo SpA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Leonardo SpA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BAESF | BAE Systems PLC | (0.27) | 4 per month | 1.78 | 0.02 | 3.00 | (3.09) | 9.79 | |
| BAESY | BAE Systems PLC | 0.60 | 19 per month | 1.51 | 0.03 | 3.12 | (2.15) | 7.52 | |
| RCRRF | Recruit Holdings Co | (5.22) | 9 per month | 4.23 | 0.02 | 9.71 | (7.42) | 21.60 | |
| THLEF | Thales SA | 0.60 | 9 per month | 2.80 | (0.02) | 4.67 | (3.73) | 19.20 | |
| THLLY | Thales SA ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.76 | (0.02) | 2.92 | (3.18) | 10.62 | |
| KNYJY | Kone Oyj ADR | 0.41 | 32 per month | 0.65 | 0.09 | 1.82 | (1.42) | 4.16 | |
| RCRUY | Recruit Holdings Co | 0.60 | 7 per month | 2.15 | 0.02 | 4.67 | (3.92) | 15.60 | |
| ATLCY | Atlas Copco ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.12 | 3.58 | (2.60) | 6.86 | |
| MITSY | Mitsui Company | (608.87) | 9 per month | 0.82 | 0.19 | 3.26 | (2.03) | 9.25 | |
| MITSF | Mitsui Co | 0.60 | 11 per month | 1.26 | 0.16 | 4.62 | (2.72) | 9.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Leonardo SpA
For every potential investor in Leonardo, whether a beginner or expert, Leonardo SpA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Leonardo Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Leonardo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Leonardo SpA's price trends.Leonardo SpA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Leonardo SpA pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Leonardo SpA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Leonardo SpA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Leonardo SpA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Leonardo SpA pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Leonardo SpA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Leonardo SpA pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Leonardo SpA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 342.54 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (2.37) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 33.44 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 33.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.80) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.23) |
Leonardo SpA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Leonardo SpA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Leonardo SpA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting leonardo pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Leonardo SpA
The number of cover stories for Leonardo SpA depends on current market conditions and Leonardo SpA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Leonardo SpA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Leonardo SpA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Leonardo SpA Short Properties
Leonardo SpA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Leonardo SpA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Leonardo SpA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Leonardo SpA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Leonardo SpA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 B |
Additional Tools for Leonardo Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Leonardo SpA's price analysis, check to measure Leonardo SpA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Leonardo SpA is operating at the current time. Most of Leonardo SpA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Leonardo SpA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Leonardo SpA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Leonardo SpA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.