First Investors Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

First Investors Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. First Investors simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for First Investors Opportunity are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as First Investors Oppo prices get older.

First Investors Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Investors Opportunity on the next trading day is expected to be 34.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.08.

First Investors Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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First Investors Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Investors mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Investors mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting First Investors Opportunity forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent First Investors observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for First Investors

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Investors Oppo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 30.93 36.22 37.98 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 30.70 32.46 37.81 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 28.43 32.27 36.12 Details

First Investors After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

First Investors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

First Investors Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

First Investors Hype Timeline

First Investors Oppo is currently traded for 34.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.85, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.85. First is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 36.22 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 29.43%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 5.38%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on First Investors is about 29.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.52. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Investors to cross-verify your projections.

First Investors Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for First Investors

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Investors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Investors' price trends.

First Investors Related Equities

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First Investors Market Strength Events

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