Five9 Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FIVN Stock | USD 18.87 1.47 8.45% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five9 Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 18.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.76. Five9 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Five9's share price is approaching 42. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Five9, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Five9 hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Five9 Inc from the perspective of Five9 response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five9 Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 18.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.76. Five9 after-hype prediction price | USD 18.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five9 to cross-verify your projections. Five9 Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Five9 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Five9 using various technical indicators. When you analyze Five9 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Five9 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five9 Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 18.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Five9 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Five9's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Five9 Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Five9 | Five9 Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Five9 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Five9's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Five9's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.75 and 21.99, respectively. We have considered Five9's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Five9 stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Five9 stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3566 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0783 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.446 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0223 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.76 |
Predictive Modules for Five9
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five9 Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five9's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Five9 After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Five9 at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Five9 or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Five9, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Five9 Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Five9's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Five9's historical news coverage. Five9's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.75 and 21.99, respectively. We have considered Five9's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Five9 is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Five9 Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Five9 Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Five9 is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Five9 backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Five9, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 3.12 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 3 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.87 | 18.87 | 0.00 |
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Five9 Hype Timeline
Five9 Inc is currently traded for 18.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Five9 is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Five9 is about 6500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.89. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Five9 Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.6. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five9 to cross-verify your projections.Five9 Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Five9's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Five9's future price movements. Getting to know how Five9's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Five9 may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RAMP | Liveramp Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.04 | (3.10) | 13.31 | |
| EVTC | Evertec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.94 | (3.16) | 9.49 | |
| NTCT | NetScout Systems | 0.22 | 6 per month | 1.68 | (0.01) | 2.52 | (2.83) | 11.36 | |
| PGY | Pagaya Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.60 | (6.84) | 22.52 | |
| TDC | Teradata Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.53 | 0.12 | 3.55 | (3.66) | 36.67 | |
| MQ | Marqeta | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.24 | (3.28) | 14.05 | |
| PAYO | Payoneer Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.97 | (3.66) | 9.39 | |
| EVCM | EverCommerce | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.77 | 0.03 | 4.96 | (5.45) | 22.27 | |
| PRGS | Progress Software | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.20 | (3.74) | 8.37 | |
| DV | DoubleVerify Holdings | 0.22 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.64 | (3.40) | 15.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Five9
For every potential investor in Five9, whether a beginner or expert, Five9's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Five9 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Five9. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Five9's price trends.Five9 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Five9 stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Five9 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Five9 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Five9 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Five9 stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Five9 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Five9 stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Five9 Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 312895.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.105263 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.08 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.38 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.47 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.76 |
Five9 Risk Indicators
The analysis of Five9's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Five9's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting five9 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Variance | 9.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Five9
The number of cover stories for Five9 depends on current market conditions and Five9's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Five9 is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Five9's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Five9 Short Properties
Five9's future price predictability will typically decrease when Five9's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Five9 Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Five9's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five9's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five9 to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five9. If investors know Five9 will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five9 listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Five9 Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five9 that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five9's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five9's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five9's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five9's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five9's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five9 is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five9's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.