CVR Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FL9 Stock | EUR 17.47 0.58 3.21% |
CVR Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of CVR Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 22nd of February 2026, the relative strength momentum indicator of CVR Energy's share price is approaching 45. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CVR Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Wall Street Target Price 15.24 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
Using CVR Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CVR Energy from the perspective of CVR Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CVR Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 17.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.14. CVR Energy after-hype prediction price | EUR 15.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CVR |
CVR Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CVR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CVR using various technical indicators. When you analyze CVR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CVR Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CVR Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 17.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CVR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CVR Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CVR Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CVR Energy | CVR Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
CVR Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CVR Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CVR Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.30 and 20.64, respectively. We have considered CVR Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CVR Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CVR Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5357 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2023 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.519 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.14 |
Predictive Modules for CVR Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CVR Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CVR Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CVR Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CVR Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CVR Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CVR Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CVR Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CVR Energy's historical news coverage. CVR Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.71 and 19.05, respectively. We have considered CVR Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CVR Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CVR Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
CVR Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CVR Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CVR Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CVR Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.81 | 3.17 | 1.59 | 0.33 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.47 | 15.88 | 9.10 |
|
CVR Energy Hype Timeline
CVR Energy is currently traded for 17.47on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.59, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.33. CVR is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.88. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 161.73%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -9.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.81%. The volatility of related hype on CVR Energy is about 772.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.14. About 70.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of CVR Energy was currently reported as 6.16. The company last dividend was issued on the 2nd of March 2026. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CVR Energy to cross-verify your projections.CVR Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CVR Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CVR Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how CVR Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CVR Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TKDA | Takeda Pharmaceutical | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.57 | 0.27 | 2.78 | (1.44) | 5.52 | |
| GE9 | Genmab AS | (3.40) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.73 | (3.42) | 9.60 | |
| CLN | The City of | 0.03 | 8 per month | 1.16 | 0.07 | 2.97 | (2.21) | 6.15 | |
| R7I | RENEWABLES INFRASTRUCTURE | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.80 | (3.61) | 11.13 | |
| 5QG | NEW FOUND GOLD | 0.05 | 6 per month | 4.66 | 0.1 | 11.93 | (7.97) | 40.57 | |
| 2HZ | Odyssean Investment Trust | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.05 | 0.08 | 2.21 | (2.62) | 5.63 | |
| 14D | tokentus investment AG | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 6.02 | (8.26) | 56.92 | |
| GE0 | GRAYCLIFF EXPLORATION LTD | 0.01 | 3 per month | 18.30 | 0.16 | 35.42 | (23.45) | 1,837 |
Other Forecasting Options for CVR Energy
For every potential investor in CVR, whether a beginner or expert, CVR Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CVR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CVR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CVR Energy's price trends.CVR Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CVR Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CVR Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CVR Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CVR Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CVR Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CVR Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CVR Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CVR Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CVR Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of CVR Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CVR Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cvr stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Variance | 9.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CVR Energy
The number of cover stories for CVR Energy depends on current market conditions and CVR Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CVR Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CVR Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CVR Energy to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in CVR Stock please use our How to Invest in CVR Energy guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.