Federated Hermes Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FLCG Etf | 32.31 0.30 0.94% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Federated Hermes ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 32.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.15. Federated Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Federated Hermes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026, the relative strength momentum indicator of Federated Hermes' share price is approaching 44. This usually indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Federated Hermes, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Federated Hermes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federated Hermes ETF from the perspective of Federated Hermes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Federated Hermes ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 32.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.15. Federated Hermes after-hype prediction price | USD 32.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Federated Hermes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Federated price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federated using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federated charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Federated Hermes Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Federated Hermes ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 32.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federated Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federated Hermes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Federated Hermes Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Federated Hermes | Federated Hermes Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Federated Hermes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Federated Hermes' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federated Hermes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.37 and 33.25, respectively. We have considered Federated Hermes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federated Hermes etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federated Hermes etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7674 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0103 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.232 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0071 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.15 |
Predictive Modules for Federated Hermes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Hermes ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Hermes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federated Hermes After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Federated Hermes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federated Hermes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Federated Hermes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Federated Hermes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Federated Hermes' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federated Hermes' historical news coverage. Federated Hermes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.35 and 33.27, respectively. We have considered Federated Hermes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Federated Hermes is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federated Hermes ETF is based on 3 months time horizon.
Federated Hermes Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Federated Hermes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federated Hermes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federated Hermes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
32.31 | 32.31 | 0.00 |
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Federated Hermes Hype Timeline
Federated Hermes ETF is currently traded for 32.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Federated is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Federated Hermes is about 8545.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.31. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federated Hermes to cross-verify your projections.Federated Hermes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Federated Hermes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federated Hermes' future price movements. Getting to know how Federated Hermes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federated Hermes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DUBS | Aptus Large Cap | (0.09) | 6 per month | 0.85 | (0.08) | 1.24 | (1.27) | 4.34 | |
| NANC | Unusual Whales Subversive | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.97 | (0.1) | 1.22 | (1.39) | 4.28 | |
| NJUL | Innovator Nasdaq 100 Power | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.35 | (0.15) | 0.60 | (0.71) | 2.11 | |
| TDV | ProShares SP Technology | (0.17) | 3 per month | 1.09 | (0.07) | 1.56 | (1.90) | 4.79 | |
| ASLV | Allspring Exchange Traded Funds | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.68 | (0.04) | 1.26 | (1.07) | 3.41 | |
| ADME | Aptus Drawdown Managed | (0.09) | 2 per month | 0.65 | (0.12) | 0.75 | (1.17) | 3.07 | |
| ZECP | Zacks Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.51 | (0.07) | 0.91 | (0.80) | 3.00 | |
| BUSA | 2023 EFT Series | 0.27 | 3 per month | 0.49 | 0.08 | 1.46 | (1.15) | 3.31 | |
| RSST | Return Stacked Stocks | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.03 | 2.28 | (2.61) | 6.83 | |
| RTH | VanEck Retail ETF | 0.07 | 2 per month | 0.52 | 0.01 | 1.43 | (1.12) | 3.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Federated Hermes
For every potential investor in Federated, whether a beginner or expert, Federated Hermes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federated Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federated. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federated Hermes' price trends.Federated Hermes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federated Hermes etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federated Hermes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federated Hermes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Federated Hermes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federated Hermes etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federated Hermes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federated Hermes etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Federated Hermes ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Federated Hermes Risk Indicators
The analysis of Federated Hermes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federated Hermes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federated etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7144 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9556 | |||
| Variance | 0.9131 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Federated Hermes
The number of cover stories for Federated Hermes depends on current market conditions and Federated Hermes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Federated Hermes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Federated Hermes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federated Hermes to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
The market value of Federated Hermes ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Federated that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Federated Hermes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Federated Hermes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Federated Hermes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Federated Hermes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federated Hermes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Federated Hermes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federated Hermes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.