Fulgent Genetics Stock Forward View
| FLGT Stock | USD 23.18 0.09 0.39% |
Fulgent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Fulgent Genetics' share price is approaching 31. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fulgent Genetics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.22) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.2799 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.32) | Wall Street Target Price 33.6667 |
Using Fulgent Genetics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fulgent Genetics from the perspective of Fulgent Genetics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fulgent Genetics using Fulgent Genetics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fulgent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fulgent Genetics' stock price.
Fulgent Genetics Implied Volatility | 0.83 |
Fulgent Genetics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fulgent Genetics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fulgent Genetics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fulgent Genetics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fulgent Genetics' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fulgent Genetics on the next trading day is expected to be 24.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.30. Fulgent Genetics after-hype prediction price | USD 24.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulgent Genetics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fulgent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fulgent Genetics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0519% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Fulgent Genetics trading at USD 23.18, that is roughly USD 0.012 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fulgent Genetics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fulgent Genetics options at the current volatility level of 0.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Fulgent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fulgent Genetics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fulgent Genetics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fulgent Genetics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fulgent Genetics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Fulgent Genetics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fulgent Genetics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fulgent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fulgent Genetics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fulgent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fulgent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fulgent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Fulgent Genetics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2015-12-31 | Previous Quarter 87.9 M | Current Value 117.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 73.1 M |
Fulgent Genetics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fulgent Genetics on the next trading day is expected to be 24.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fulgent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fulgent Genetics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fulgent Genetics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fulgent Genetics | Fulgent Genetics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Fulgent Genetics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fulgent Genetics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fulgent Genetics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.36 and 26.06, respectively. We have considered Fulgent Genetics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fulgent Genetics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fulgent Genetics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1934 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4804 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.3032 |
Predictive Modules for Fulgent Genetics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fulgent Genetics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fulgent Genetics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fulgent Genetics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fulgent Genetics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fulgent Genetics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fulgent Genetics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fulgent Genetics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fulgent Genetics' historical news coverage. Fulgent Genetics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.18 and 25.88, respectively. We have considered Fulgent Genetics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fulgent Genetics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fulgent Genetics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fulgent Genetics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fulgent Genetics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fulgent Genetics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fulgent Genetics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 1.85 | 0.85 | 0.17 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.18 | 24.03 | 3.67 |
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Fulgent Genetics Hype Timeline
Fulgent Genetics is currently traded for 23.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.85, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.17. Fulgent is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 95.85%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 3.67%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.44%. The volatility of related hype on Fulgent Genetics is about 478.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.01. Fulgent Genetics currently holds 8.47 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.03, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulgent Genetics to cross-verify your projections.Fulgent Genetics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fulgent Genetics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fulgent Genetics' future price movements. Getting to know how Fulgent Genetics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fulgent Genetics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MYGN | Myriad Genetics | 0.13 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 4.74 | (4.53) | 14.61 | |
| PSNL | Personalis | (0.74) | 4 per month | 5.12 | 0.04 | 12.21 | (9.67) | 28.22 | |
| DRIO | DarioHealth Corp | 0.87 | 7 per month | 4.91 | 0 | 7.41 | (7.91) | 31.83 | |
| CSTL | Castle Biosciences | (3.89) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.74 | (6.92) | 16.27 | |
| CDNA | CareDx Inc | (0.27) | 9 per month | 3.18 | 0.06 | 6.10 | (5.05) | 28.32 | |
| BFLY | Butterfly Network | (0.07) | 9 per month | 4.37 | 0.1 | 12.50 | (8.57) | 35.76 | |
| ARVN | Arvinas | 0.11 | 8 per month | 3.35 | 0.05 | 5.48 | (5.07) | 28.90 | |
| VALN | Valneva SE ADR | (0.07) | 3 per month | 2.35 | 0.08 | 5.63 | (4.81) | 15.59 | |
| AVXL | Anavex Life Sciences | 0.04 | 26 per month | 4.04 | 0.04 | 8.16 | (7.48) | 33.49 | |
| PACB | Pacific Biosciences of | 0.02 | 9 per month | 4.83 | 0.01 | 10.33 | (8.44) | 29.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fulgent Genetics
For every potential investor in Fulgent, whether a beginner or expert, Fulgent Genetics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fulgent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fulgent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fulgent Genetics' price trends.Fulgent Genetics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fulgent Genetics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fulgent Genetics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fulgent Genetics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fulgent Genetics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fulgent Genetics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fulgent Genetics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fulgent Genetics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fulgent Genetics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fulgent Genetics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fulgent Genetics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fulgent Genetics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fulgent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.62 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fulgent Genetics
The number of cover stories for Fulgent Genetics depends on current market conditions and Fulgent Genetics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fulgent Genetics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fulgent Genetics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fulgent Genetics Short Properties
Fulgent Genetics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Fulgent Genetics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fulgent Genetics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fulgent Genetics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fulgent Genetics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 258.1 M |
Additional Tools for Fulgent Stock Analysis
When running Fulgent Genetics' price analysis, check to measure Fulgent Genetics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fulgent Genetics is operating at the current time. Most of Fulgent Genetics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fulgent Genetics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fulgent Genetics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fulgent Genetics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.