Farmers Merchants Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| FMBN Stock | USD 30.85 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 30.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.48. Farmers Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Farmers Merchants' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Farmers Merchants hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Farmers Merchants Bancshares from the perspective of Farmers Merchants response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 30.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.48. Farmers Merchants after-hype prediction price | USD 30.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Farmers |
Farmers Merchants Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Farmers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Farmers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Farmers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Farmers Merchants Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 30.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Farmers Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Farmers Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Farmers Merchants Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Farmers Merchants | Farmers Merchants Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Farmers Merchants Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Farmers Merchants' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Farmers Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.76 and 31.94, respectively. We have considered Farmers Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Farmers Merchants pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Farmers Merchants pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.342 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0597 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1436 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0047 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.475 |
Predictive Modules for Farmers Merchants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Farmers Merchants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Farmers Merchants After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Farmers Merchants at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Farmers Merchants or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Farmers Merchants, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Farmers Merchants Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Farmers Merchants' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Farmers Merchants' historical news coverage. Farmers Merchants' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.76 and 31.94, respectively. We have considered Farmers Merchants' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Farmers Merchants is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Farmers Merchants is based on 3 months time horizon.
Farmers Merchants Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Farmers Merchants is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Farmers Merchants backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Farmers Merchants, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.85 | 30.85 | 0.00 |
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Farmers Merchants Hype Timeline
Farmers Merchants is currently traded for 30.85. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. Farmers is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Farmers Merchants is about 511.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.82. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.96. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Farmers Merchants last dividend was issued on the 21st of December 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers Merchants to cross-verify your projections.Farmers Merchants Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Farmers Merchants' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Farmers Merchants' future price movements. Getting to know how Farmers Merchants' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Farmers Merchants may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FMBM | F M Bank | (1.89) | 2 per month | 0.18 | 0.13 | 1.01 | (0.89) | 2.49 | |
| CBCY | Central Bancompany | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | 0.1 | 6.73 | (3.21) | 25.42 | |
| MPCB | Mountain Pacific Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | 0.07 | 1.69 | (1.60) | 10.65 | |
| CNBW | CNB Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 5.92 | 0.00 | 26.40 | |
| JDVB | JD Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1.08 | (0.13) | 8.22 | |
| PPLL | Peoples | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 65.12 | |
| CYVF | Crystal Valley Financial | (0.12) | 4 per month | 0.65 | 0.03 | 1.33 | (0.96) | 8.13 | |
| JFBC | Jeffersonville Bancorp | (0.12) | 4 per month | 1.00 | (0.03) | 1.91 | (2.05) | 5.86 | |
| PFBX | Peoples Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | (0.03) | 0.90 | (0.89) | 19.09 | |
| CNBB | Cnb Community Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.17 | (0.56) | 3.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Farmers Merchants
For every potential investor in Farmers, whether a beginner or expert, Farmers Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Farmers Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Farmers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Farmers Merchants' price trends.Farmers Merchants Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Farmers Merchants pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Farmers Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Farmers Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Farmers Merchants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Farmers Merchants pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Farmers Merchants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Farmers Merchants pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Farmers Merchants Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Farmers Merchants Risk Indicators
The analysis of Farmers Merchants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Farmers Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting farmers pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6547 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Farmers Merchants
The number of cover stories for Farmers Merchants depends on current market conditions and Farmers Merchants' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Farmers Merchants is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Farmers Merchants' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Farmers Pink Sheet
Farmers Merchants financial ratios help investors to determine whether Farmers Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Farmers with respect to the benefits of owning Farmers Merchants security.