First National Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Moving Average

FNEC Stock  USD 0.03  0.01  77.30%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First National Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.11. First Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First National stock prices and determine the direction of First National Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First National's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of First National's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of First National's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First National Energy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using First National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First National Energy from the perspective of First National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First National Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.11.

First National after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First National to cross-verify your projections.

First National Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for First National is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

First National Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First National Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000036, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First National Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest First NationalFirst National Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

First National Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First National's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0003 and 124.28, respectively. We have considered First National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.03
0.0003
Downside
0.03
Expected Value
124.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First National pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First National pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria104.2015
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 3.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0019
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.2722
SAESum of the absolute errors0.1107
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of First National Energy price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of First National. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for First National

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First National Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.0351.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.0251.27
Details

First National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of First National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of First National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

First National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting First National's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First National's historical news coverage. First National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 51.28, respectively. We have considered First National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.03
0.03
After-hype Price
51.28
Upside
First National is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First National Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.

First National Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  14.33 
124.25
 0.00  
  0.24 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.03
0.03
20.00 
0.00  
Notes

First National Hype Timeline

First National Energy is currently traded for 0.03. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.24. First is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is estimated to be 20.0%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 14.33%. The volatility of related hype on First National is about 731312.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -0.21. First National Energy currently holds 696.17 K in liabilities. Debt can assist First National until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, First National's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like First National Energy sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for First to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about First National's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First National to cross-verify your projections.

First National Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to First National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First National's future price movements. Getting to know how First National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GEBRFGreenbriar Capital Corp 0.00 0 per month 16.22  0.15  54.93 (37.50) 310.82 
CPWROcean Thermal Energy 0.00 0 per month 18.73  0.19  60.95 (42.03) 678.05 
PWCOPwrCor Inc 0.00 0 per month 9.83  0.08  40.82 (26.09) 194.61 
ASREAstra Energy 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.01) 21.21 (19.62) 62.21 
VXITVirExit Technologies 0.00 0 per month 10.81  0.13  33.33 (25.00) 91.67 
IICNChina Intel Info 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
ALCEAlternus Energy Group 0.00 2 per month 0.00 (0.14) 28.57 (42.07) 189.10 
GSFIGreen Stream Holdings 0.00 1 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
GRGRGreen Energy Resources 0.00 1 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
MMMWMass Megawat Wind(0.17)4 per month 10.03  0.04  17.65 (18.75) 107.54 

Other Forecasting Options for First National

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First National's price trends.

First National Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First National pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First National Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First National pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First National pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify First National Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First National Risk Indicators

The analysis of First National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for First National

The number of cover stories for First National depends on current market conditions and First National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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First National Short Properties

First National's future price predictability will typically decrease when First National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First National Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding100.2 M
Short Long Term Debt706.2 K

Other Information on Investing in First Pink Sheet

First National financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First National security.