Shift4 Payments Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FOUR Stock | USD 66.23 0.23 0.35% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shift4 Payments on the next trading day is expected to be 63.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.08. Shift4 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Shift4 Payments' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Shift4 Payments' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Shift4 Payments fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Shift4 Payments' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6623 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.2348 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.5433 | Wall Street Target Price 88.8261 |
Using Shift4 Payments hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shift4 Payments from the perspective of Shift4 Payments response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Shift4 Payments using Shift4 Payments' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Shift4 using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Shift4 Payments' stock price.
Shift4 Payments Short Interest
An investor who is long Shift4 Payments may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Shift4 Payments and may potentially protect profits, hedge Shift4 Payments with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 82.4419 | Short Percent 0.21 | Short Ratio 9.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.4 M | 50 Day MA 67.2026 |
Shift4 Payments Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Shift4 Payments' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Shift4. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Shift4 can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Shift4 Payments. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Shift4 Payments Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
Shift4 Payments' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Shift4 Payments stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Shift4 Payments' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Shift4 Payments stock will not fluctuate a lot when Shift4 Payments' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shift4 Payments on the next trading day is expected to be 63.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.08. Shift4 Payments after-hype prediction price | USD 66.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shift4 Payments to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Shift4 contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Shift4 Payments will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Shift4 Payments trading at USD 66.23, that is roughly USD 0.0253 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Shift4 Payments' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Shift4 Payments options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Shift4 Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Shift4 Payments' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Shift4 Payments' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Shift4 Payments stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Shift4 Payments' open interest, investors have to compare it to Shift4 Payments' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Shift4 Payments is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Shift4. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Shift4 Payments Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Shift4 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shift4 using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shift4 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Shift4 Payments Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Shift4 Payments' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2019-03-31 | Previous Quarter 3 B | Current Value 1.5 B | Quarterly Volatility 637.1 M |
Shift4 Payments Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shift4 Payments on the next trading day is expected to be 63.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43, mean absolute percentage error of 3.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shift4 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shift4 Payments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Shift4 Payments Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Shift4 Payments | Shift4 Payments Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Shift4 Payments Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Shift4 Payments' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shift4 Payments' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.72 and 65.70, respectively. We have considered Shift4 Payments' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shift4 Payments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shift4 Payments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3698 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4276 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 87.0834 |
Predictive Modules for Shift4 Payments
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shift4 Payments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shift4 Payments' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Shift4 Payments After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Shift4 Payments at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shift4 Payments or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Shift4 Payments, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Shift4 Payments Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Shift4 Payments' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shift4 Payments' historical news coverage. Shift4 Payments' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.39 and 69.37, respectively. We have considered Shift4 Payments' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Shift4 Payments is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shift4 Payments is based on 3 months time horizon.
Shift4 Payments Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shift4 Payments is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shift4 Payments backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shift4 Payments, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 2.49 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
66.23 | 66.88 | 0.41 |
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Shift4 Payments Hype Timeline
Shift4 Payments is currently traded for 66.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Shift4 is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 66.88 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 183.09%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.41%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Shift4 Payments is about 625.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.31. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.33 B. Net Income was 294.5 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.26 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shift4 Payments to cross-verify your projections.Shift4 Payments Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Shift4 Payments' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shift4 Payments' future price movements. Getting to know how Shift4 Payments' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shift4 Payments may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WEX | Wex Inc | (0.48) | 13 per month | 1.62 | 0.01 | 3.31 | (2.82) | 8.14 | |
| EXLS | ExlService Holdings | (0.02) | 11 per month | 1.65 | (0) | 1.94 | (2.64) | 8.81 | |
| S | SentinelOne | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.42 | (3.75) | 19.38 | |
| ACIW | ACI Worldwide | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.08 | (3.30) | 9.43 | |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories | (0.25) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.28 | (1.80) | 4.81 | |
| BOX | Box Inc | 0.10 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.76 | (3.61) | 11.36 | |
| QLYS | Qualys Inc | 1.08 | 12 per month | 1.88 | (0) | 2.52 | (3.12) | 25.56 | |
| CORZ | Core Scientific Common | (0.45) | 10 per month | 4.08 | (0.02) | 7.09 | (7.56) | 17.30 | |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation | 3.27 | 10 per month | 2.46 | 0.20 | 5.53 | (4.35) | 10.98 | |
| CVLT | CommVault Systems | 1.14 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.49 | (3.87) | 18.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for Shift4 Payments
For every potential investor in Shift4, whether a beginner or expert, Shift4 Payments' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shift4 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shift4. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shift4 Payments' price trends.Shift4 Payments Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shift4 Payments stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shift4 Payments could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shift4 Payments by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Shift4 Payments Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shift4 Payments stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shift4 Payments shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shift4 Payments stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shift4 Payments entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Shift4 Payments Risk Indicators
The analysis of Shift4 Payments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shift4 Payments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shift4 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Variance | 5.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Shift4 Payments
The number of cover stories for Shift4 Payments depends on current market conditions and Shift4 Payments' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shift4 Payments is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shift4 Payments' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Shift4 Payments Short Properties
Shift4 Payments' future price predictability will typically decrease when Shift4 Payments' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Shift4 Payments often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Shift4 Payments' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shift4 Payments' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Additional Tools for Shift4 Stock Analysis
When running Shift4 Payments' price analysis, check to measure Shift4 Payments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shift4 Payments is operating at the current time. Most of Shift4 Payments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shift4 Payments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shift4 Payments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shift4 Payments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.