Friendly Hills Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Regression

FPBC Stock   5.15  0.01  0.19%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Friendly Hills Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.44. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Friendly Hills' stock prices and determine the direction of Friendly Hills Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Friendly Hills' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics. At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Friendly Hills' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Friendly Hills' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Friendly Hills Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Friendly Hills hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Friendly Hills Bancorp from the perspective of Friendly Hills response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Friendly Hills Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.44.

Friendly Hills after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.

Friendly Hills Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Friendly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Friendly using various technical indicators. When you analyze Friendly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Friendly Hills price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Friendly Hills Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Friendly Hills Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Friendly Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Friendly Hills' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Friendly Hills Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Friendly Hills Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Friendly Hills' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Friendly Hills' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.49 and 5.88, respectively. We have considered Friendly Hills' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.15
5.18
Expected Value
5.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Friendly Hills pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Friendly Hills pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7087
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0565
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0109
SAESum of the absolute errors3.4445
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Friendly Hills Bancorp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Friendly Hills

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Friendly Hills Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Friendly Hills. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Friendly Hills' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Friendly Hills' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Friendly Hills Bancorp.

Friendly Hills Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility

As far as predicting the price of Friendly Hills at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Friendly Hills or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Friendly Hills, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Friendly Hills Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Friendly Hills is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Friendly Hills backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Friendly Hills, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
0.70
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.15
5.15
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Friendly Hills Hype Timeline

Friendly Hills Bancorp is currently traded for 5.15. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Friendly is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Friendly Hills is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.15. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.

Friendly Hills Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Friendly Hills' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Friendly Hills' future price movements. Getting to know how Friendly Hills' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Friendly Hills may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
USMTUS Metro Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.72  0.06  1.75 (0.98) 9.15 
FSGB1st Federal Savings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.07) 1.05  0.00  4.26 
TDCBThird Century Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.89 (0.01) 3.30 (2.19) 8.60 
FNFIFirst Niles Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.95 (0.02) 4.99 (4.83) 16.08 
ASCNAbsecon Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.98  0.03  1.02 (1.01) 17.41 
LBNWLiberty Northwest Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.17) 0.65  0.00  0.83 
CBFCCNB Financial Services 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.11  0.00  0.00  38.45 
SRNNSouthern Banc 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 2.65 (0.40) 10.73 
CAIBCalifornia International Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.05  0.00  0.00  72.22 
EBSHEmpire Bancshares 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.38) 0.00  0.00  1.21 

Other Forecasting Options for Friendly Hills

For every potential investor in Friendly, whether a beginner or expert, Friendly Hills' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Friendly Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Friendly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Friendly Hills' price trends.

Friendly Hills Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Friendly Hills pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Friendly Hills could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Friendly Hills by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Friendly Hills Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Friendly Hills pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Friendly Hills shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Friendly Hills pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Friendly Hills Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Friendly Hills Risk Indicators

The analysis of Friendly Hills' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Friendly Hills' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting friendly pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Friendly Hills

The number of cover stories for Friendly Hills depends on current market conditions and Friendly Hills' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Friendly Hills is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Friendly Hills' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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